← on nowLGR-099 · v0.1.0 · model · estimate vultures: the numbers
vultures · a cattle painkiller, a dog, a virus, a person
india lost about 97 to 99% of its vultures in ten years to diclofenac, a painkiller given to cattle. carcasses lay uneaten. feral dogs multiplied on them. rabies followed. one estimate: about half a million extra human deaths in five years.
method Frank & Sudarshan 2024 (AER) mortality estimate; Green et al. 2004 for the diclofenac mechanism.
live. this is the channel itself. embed it anywhere:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?channel=vultures" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · vultures"></iframe>
or the whole broadcast, every channel, the same for everyone:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?embed=1" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · on now, everywhere"></iframe>
how this number is built
- method
- Frank & Sudarshan 2024 (AER) mortality estimate; Green et al. 2004 for the diclofenac mechanism.
- range
- human deaths 400,000–600,000 over 2000–2005
- confidence
- estimate
- weakness
- a difference-in-differences estimate; causal, contested at the margins, large in any version.
- dispute
- dispute LGR-099 · corrections are credited
- data
- channels.json (sign-in) · full entry · CC BY 4.0