{ "name": "on now", "version": "0.1.0", "generated": "2026-08-16", "license": "CC BY 4.0 for data and text; code MIT", "rules": [ "every number is a model until it is a feed, and wears a badge saying which.", "every channel has a stable id, a version, a method, a range, a confidence grade and a named weakness.", "the big numbers count from midnight utc, worldwide, so everyone sees the same thing at the same second. the footer counts since you opened the page.", "birth-year screens compare the year you were born with now. your year never leaves your device.", "the site makes three closing statements and no others: because we stopped. because we vaccinated. if we stopped. (and, in your own ledger only: because you stopped.)", "no ledger is written where there is none: the ocean’s births, the farm share of resistance, the animals in a burger.", "human deaths never enter the animal total. animals killed for disease do.", "anyone who finds an error is credited, in public, with their name on the changelog. no money changes hands." ], "channels": [ { "id": "LGR-001", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "chickens", "latin": "Gallus gallus domesticus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "USDA daily federally inspected slaughter (US share, then others)", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 74000000000, "per_second": 2344.918498238142 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 82000000000, "per_second": 2598.423200750374, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 42, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 8509240246.40657, "average_time_left_days": 21, "facts": [ { "text": "the gap is the male chicks, macerated on day one, and the ones that die in the shed. a chicken can live eight years.", "source": "FAO slaughter; hatchery culling estimates" }, { "text": "nine of every ten farmed land vertebrates killed for food are chickens.", "source": "FAO" }, { "text": "the broiler chicken bone will be the signature fossil of our age: more of them than of any bird that ever lived, in every landfill on earth.", "source": "Bennett et al. 2018, Royal Society Open Science" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics for chickens (meat birds plus spent layers), converted to per second. births = slaughter + typical shed mortality (4–6%) + male layer chicks culled at hatch (~7 billion/yr). standing stock by Little's law: rate × 42 days.", "range": "slaughter 70–78 billion/yr; births 78–86 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "FAO under-reports backyard slaughter in parts of Asia and Africa; hatchery culling has no official global series." }, { "id": "LGR-002", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "farmed shrimp", "latin": "Litopenaeus vannamei & others", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 440000000000, "per_second": 13942.758638172738 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 800000000000, "per_second": 25350.47025122316, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 150, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 180698151950.7187, "average_time_left_days": 75, "facts": [ { "text": "most hatchery larvae never reach the pond.", "source": "fishcount.org.uk" } ], "method": "fishcount.org.uk estimate of farmed decapods, converted to per second. hatchery numbers are several times larger because most postlarvae die before harvest.", "range": "250–600 billion/yr harvested", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "tonnage-to-count conversion depends on assumed mean weight at harvest; the site uses the midpoint." }, { "id": "LGR-003", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "farmed fish", "latin": "many species", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 124000000000, "per_second": 3929.32288893959 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 160000000000, "per_second": 5070.094050244632, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 540, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 183326488706.3655, "average_time_left_days": 270, "facts": [ { "text": "most die by suffocation, on ice.", "source": "fishcount.org.uk" } ], "method": "fishcount.org.uk estimate of farmed finfish killed per year, tonnage divided by species mean weights.", "range": "78–171 billion/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "mean weights per species are themselves estimates; hatchery-to-harvest survival varies widely." }, { "id": "LGR-004", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "ducks", "latin": "Anas platyrhynchos domesticus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 3300000000, "per_second": 104.57068978629553 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 3500000000, "per_second": 110.90830734910132, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 49, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 442710472.27926075, "average_time_left_days": 24.5, "facts": [ { "text": "a duck can live ten years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "3.0–3.5 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "most ducks are slaughtered in China; reporting granularity is coarse." }, { "id": "LGR-005", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "pigs", "latin": "Sus scrofa domesticus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "USDA daily slaughter", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 1500000000, "per_second": 47.53213172104343 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 1750000000, "per_second": 55.45415367455066, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 180, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 739219712.5256673, "average_time_left_days": 90, "facts": [ { "text": "about one in eight dies before weaning. a pig can live fifteen years.", "source": "FAO; industry mortality data" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics; births = slaughter plus pre-weaning mortality (~12–15%).", "range": "1.4–1.6 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "pre-weaning mortality is taken from industry data in a few countries and applied globally." }, { "id": "LGR-006", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "rabbits", "latin": "Oryctolagus cuniculus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 900000000, "per_second": 28.519279032626056 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 1000000000, "per_second": 31.68808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 77, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 189733059.54825464, "average_time_left_days": 38.5, "facts": [ { "text": "a rabbit can live nine years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "0.8–1.0 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "reporting is thin outside China and Europe." }, { "id": "LGR-007", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "geese", "latin": "Anser anser domesticus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 700000000, "per_second": 22.181661469820266 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 750000000, "per_second": 23.766065860521714, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 120, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 229979466.11909652, "average_time_left_days": 60, "facts": [ { "text": "a goose can live twenty years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "0.65–0.75 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "as ducks." }, { "id": "LGR-008", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "turkeys", "latin": "Meleagris gallopavo", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 650000000, "per_second": 20.59725707911882 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 700000000, "per_second": 22.181661469820266, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 120, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 213552361.3963039, "average_time_left_days": 60, "facts": [ { "text": "a turkey can live ten years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "0.6–0.7 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-009", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "sheep", "latin": "Ovis aries", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 620000000, "per_second": 19.64661444469795 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 700000000, "per_second": 22.181661469820266, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 210, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 356468172.48459953, "average_time_left_days": 105, "facts": [ { "text": "a sheep can live twelve years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "0.58–0.65 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "informal slaughter under-reported." }, { "id": "LGR-010", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "goats", "latin": "Capra hircus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 500000000, "per_second": 15.844043907014475 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 560000000, "per_second": 17.745329175856213, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 120, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 164271047.22792608, "average_time_left_days": 60, "facts": [ { "text": "a goat can live fifteen years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "0.45–0.55 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "informal slaughter under-reported." }, { "id": "LGR-011", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "cattle", "latin": "Bos taurus", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "USDA daily slaughter", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 330000000, "per_second": 10.457068978629554 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 360000000, "per_second": 11.407711613050422, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 550, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 496919917.8644764, "average_time_left_days": 275, "facts": [ { "text": "the gap is mostly bobby calves: dairy farms’ male calves, killed young because they cannot make milk. see: bobby calves. a cow can live twenty years.", "source": "FAO; dairy industry data" }, { "text": "in much of the tropics the pasture under the ones dying now was forest within their grandparents’ lifetime.", "source": "Global Forest Watch; Pendrill et al. 2019" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics; births = slaughter plus bobby calves and calf mortality. standing stock via Little's law counts the slaughter queue, not the breeding and dairy herd (~1.5 billion).", "range": "0.30–0.35 billion/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "the 'alive right now' figure excludes dairy and breeding animals by design and should be read as the queue." }, { "id": "LGR-012", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "buffalo", "latin": "Bubalus bubalis", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 30000000, "per_second": 0.9506426344208685 }, "right": { "label": "born to be killed", "per_year": 33000000, "per_second": 1.0457068978629553, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 730, "verb": "born", "standing_stock": 59958932.23819301, "average_time_left_days": 365, "facts": [ { "text": "a buffalo can live twenty-five years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "25–35 million/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-013", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "wild-caught fish", "latin": "many species", "kind": "wild", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "Global Fishing Watch: every industrial vessel fishing right now, by name and flag", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 2000000000000, "per_second": 63376.1756280579 }, "right": { "label": "born", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. nobody counts the ocean’s births, only the taking." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about a tenth of what is caught is thrown back dead.", "source": "FAO discards estimates" }, { "text": "a third of assessed stocks are fished past what they can replace.", "source": "FAO SOFIA" }, { "text": "about 100,000 fishers die at sea every year. it is the deadliest job on earth, and some of the crews are not there by choice.", "source": "FISH Safety Foundation 2022; ILO; EJF" }, { "text": "the largest fishery on earth is one small fish, the peruvian anchoveta, and almost none of it is eaten by people. it is ground into meal for salmon, pigs and chickens.", "source": "FAO; IFFO" } ], "method": "fishcount.org.uk estimate: FAO capture tonnage divided by species mean weights.", "range": "1.1–2.2 trillion/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the widest range on the site. excludes illegal, unreported and unregulated catch, which is substantial. the site uses ~2.0 trillion; the low end halves the number." }, { "id": "LGR-014", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "sharks", "latin": "Selachii", "kind": "wild", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 100000000, "per_second": 3.168808781402895 }, "right": { "label": "born", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. nobody counts the ocean’s births, only the taking." }, "facts": [ { "text": "many are killed for their fins alone. some species live longer than we do.", "source": "Worm et al. 2013" } ], "method": "Worm et al. 2013 estimate of sharks killed per year across fisheries.", "range": "63–273 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a decade old; more recent work (Worm et al. 2024) suggests mortality has not fallen despite regulation." }, { "id": "LGR-015", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "dogs", "latin": "Canis familiaris", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 30000000, "per_second": 0.9506426344208685 }, "right": { "label": "born", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "not bred for this. bought, worked, or taken." }, "facts": [ { "text": "estimates vary widely. most were young.", "source": "HSI estimates" } ], "method": "Humane Society International estimates of dogs killed for meat, mostly in Asia.", "range": "10–30 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "no official statistics anywhere. treat as order of magnitude." }, { "id": "LGR-016", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "horses", "latin": "Equus caballus", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 5000000, "per_second": 0.15844043907014474 }, "right": { "label": "born", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "not bred for this. bought, worked, or taken." }, "facts": [ { "text": "often after a working life. a horse can live thirty years.", "source": "FAO" }, { "text": "the united states stopped slaughtering horses in 2007 and started shipping them: tens of thousands a year to mexico and canada.", "source": "USDA export data; ASPCA" }, { "text": "racing: about one horse dies for every thousand starts.", "source": "Jockey Club Equine Injury Database" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "4–6 million/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-017", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "camels", "latin": "Camelus dromedarius", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 3000000, "per_second": 0.09506426344208685 }, "right": { "label": "born", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "not bred for this. bought, worked, or taken." }, "facts": [ { "text": "a camel can live forty years.", "source": "FAO" } ], "method": "FAO slaughter statistics.", "range": "2.5–3.5 million/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-018", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "cats and dogs", "latin": "in shelters · united states only, until the country layer", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed because nobody came", "per_year": 920000, "per_second": 0.029153040788906633 }, "right": { "label": "taken in", "per_year": 6300000, "per_second": 0.1996349532283824, "fixed": null, "note": "the rest found someone. the world number is not counted anywhere." }, "facts": [ { "text": "it was thirteen to twenty million a year in the 1970s. spay and neuter did most of it.", "source": "HSUS; ASPCA; Shelter Animals Count" }, { "text": "most are healthy. they die of a lack of room, and of someone.", "source": "ASPCA" } ], "method": "ASPCA / Shelter Animals Count: dogs and cats killed in US shelters per year, and intake.", "range": "killed 0.7–1.0 million/yr; intake 5.5–6.5 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "united states only; the site says so in the label. no global series exists." }, { "id": "LGR-019", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "trophies", "latin": "animals killed for a trophy, traded across borders", "kind": "sport", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "trophies taken, all species", "per_year": 170000, "per_second": 0.005386974928384921 }, "right": { "label": "of them, threatened species", "per_year": 20000, "per_second": 0.000633761756280579, "fixed": null, "note": "lions, elephants, leopards, rhinos, bears. most go to the united states." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 8,000 lions live on south african breeding farms, more than twice the country’s wild lions. petted as cubs, walked with as juveniles, shot in enclosures, sold as skeletons. the government voted to end it in 2021. it has not ended.", "source": "Born Free; Four Paws; EMS Foundation; DFFE 2021" }, { "text": "1.7 million trophies crossed borders in a decade. about one in eight was from a threatened species.", "source": "IFAW 2016; CITES trade database" } ], "method": "IFAW 2016 analysis of CITES trade data: hunting trophies traded internationally 2004–2014, annualised; threatened-species share from the same.", "range": "150,000–200,000/yr; threatened 15,000–25,000/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "trade records undercount trophies kept in-country; the lion-farm figures are NGO estimates the south african government has broadly confirmed." }, { "id": "LGR-020", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "pangolins", "latin": "the most trafficked wild mammal on earth", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed for scales and meat · estimated", "per_year": 200000, "per_second": 0.00633761756280579 }, "right": { "label": "what the scales are made of", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "fingernail", "note": "keratin. the same protein as your nails and hair. no medicine has ever been shown to be in it." }, "facts": [ { "text": "china removed pangolin scales from its official pharmacopoeia in 2020. the trade continues.", "source": "Wildlife Justice Commission 2020; Challender et al. 2020; TRAFFIC" }, { "text": "about a million were taken between 2000 and 2013. all eight species are now threatened.", "source": "IUCN Pangolin Specialist Group" } ], "method": "Wildlife Justice Commission and TRAFFIC seizure analyses scaled to trade; Challender et al. 2020.", "range": "100,000–400,000/yr; ~1 million 2000–2013", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "seizure-based; the true trade is larger by an unknown factor." }, { "id": "LGR-021", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "songbirds", "latin": "killed illegally around the mediterranean", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "shot, netted, glued and trapped", "per_year": 25000000, "per_second": 0.7922021953507238 }, "right": { "label": "of them, songbirds", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "most. blackcaps on lime sticks in cyprus, robins in italy, ortolans in the landes: kept in the dark, fattened, drowned in armagnac and eaten whole under a napkin. mitterrand’s last meal." }, "facts": [ { "text": "egypt about 5.7 million a year, italy 5.6, syria 3.9, lebanon 2.6, cyprus 2.3. the range is eleven to thirty-six million.", "source": "BirdLife International 2015, Brochet et al." }, { "text": "ortolans have been protected in france since 1999. about 30,000 a year are still taken. the european population fell 84% between 1980 and 2012.", "source": "LPO; European Bird Census Council" }, { "text": "cyprus cut its trapping by four fifths in three years once it started fining people. it is creeping back.", "source": "BirdLife Cyprus" } ], "method": "BirdLife International 2015 (Brochet et al.): illegal killing around the Mediterranean.", "range": "11–36 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "illegal by definition, so estimated from surveys and enforcement data; excludes legal hunting, which is larger." }, { "id": "LGR-022", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "donkeys", "latin": "Equus asinus · skinned for gelatin, eaten, worked", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed for their hides and meat", "per_year": 5900000, "per_second": 0.18695971810277082 }, "right": { "label": "left in the world", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "53 million", "note": "at this rate, half of them in five years. the hides go to china for ejiao, a gelatin sold as a tonic. the meat is mostly the same animals. the families in africa who used them lose their transport." }, "facts": [ { "text": "official statistics count about three to four million donkeys slaughtered for meat a year. the hide estimate is larger because much of the trade is informal, and most of the animals are both. there is no ledger for the ones worked to death.", "source": "FAOSTAT; The Donkey Sanctuary 2019, 2022" }, { "text": "brazil, kenya and botswana banned the export. the trade moved.", "source": "The Donkey Sanctuary 2019, 2022" }, { "text": "ejiao is boiled donkey skin. it is prescribed for anaemia and sold in cakes.", "source": "Donkey Sanctuary; Ejiao trade reports" } ], "method": "The Donkey Sanctuary 2019/2022 estimates of hides entering the ejiao trade; world population from FAO.", "range": "4.8–5.9 million/yr; population 44–53 million", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "trade is partly informal; the 'half in five years' line is a straight-line projection, stated as such." }, { "id": "LGR-023", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "silkworms", "latin": "Bombyx mori · estimated", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "boiled alive in their cocoons", "per_year": 1000000000000, "per_second": 31688.08781402895 }, "right": { "label": "hatched for it", "per_year": 1000000000000, "per_second": 31688.08781402895, "fixed": null, "note": null }, "life_days": 40, "verb": "hatched", "standing_stock": 109514031485.28406, "average_time_left_days": 20, "facts": [ { "text": "about 6,600 cocoons for a kilogram of silk. the moth was domesticated five thousand years ago and can no longer fly.", "source": "Rethink Priorities 2023; FAO / ISC silk statistics" }, { "text": "if the ledger counts insects, and it does, this is among the largest channels on it.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "Rethink Priorities 2023: silk tonnage × cocoons per kg. births ≈ deaths (nearly all reared are killed).", "range": "420 billion–1 trillion/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "cocoons-per-kg varies by strain; the site uses the top of the range. insects are counted on this ledger; some will object." }, { "id": "LGR-024", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "farmed insects", "latin": "crickets, mealworms, soldier fly larvae · estimated", "kind": "farmed", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed", "per_year": 1200000000000, "per_second": 38025.70537683474 }, "right": { "label": "projected, a year, by 2030", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "~5 trillion", "note": "mostly for pet food, fish feed and chicken feed. not, mostly, for people." }, "facts": [ { "text": "the newest ledger. it is growing faster than any other channel here.", "source": "Rethink Priorities 2023; Rowe 2020" } ], "method": "Rethink Priorities 2023; Rowe 2020: farmed insects killed per year for food and feed, and 2030 projections.", "range": "1–1.2 trillion/yr now; 4–5 trillion by 2030", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "industry data are sparse and growing fast; the projection is the industry's own." }, { "id": "LGR-025", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "horseshoe crabs", "latin": "Limulus polyphemus · united states", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "bled for their blue blood", "per_year": 650000, "per_second": 0.020597257079118816 }, "right": { "label": "died of it", "per_year": 100000, "per_second": 0.003168808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": "the rest are put back in the sea, paler. the blood is blue because it carries copper, not iron." }, "facts": [ { "text": "every vaccine and every injectable drug on earth is tested for contamination with an extract of their blood, or, since 2020, with a synthetic copy that most companies still do not use.", "source": "ASMFC 2023; Krisfalusi-Gannon et al. 2018; European Pharmacopoeia 2020" }, { "text": "they are 450 million years old. older than trees.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "ASMFC 2023 biomedical bleeding counts; mortality from Krisfalusi-Gannon et al. 2018.", "range": "bled 600,000–1,000,000/yr; mortality 10–30%", "confidence": "count (bled); estimate (deaths)", "weakness": "post-release mortality is estimated, not observed." }, { "id": "LGR-026", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "seahorses", "latin": "Hippocampus", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "dried, for medicine and curios", "per_year": 37000000, "per_second": 1.172459249119071 }, "right": { "label": "left in the wild", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. most are bycatch of shrimp trawls, sold on instead of thrown back." }, "facts": [ { "text": "the male carries the young.", "source": "Project Seahorse; Lawson et al. 2017" } ], "method": "Lawson et al. 2017 (Project Seahorse) trade estimate.", "range": "20–37 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "trade is largely undocumented; the figure is a decade old." }, { "id": "LGR-027", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "frogs", "latin": "for their legs · estimated", "kind": "taken", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed", "per_year": 100000000, "per_second": 3.168808781402895 }, "right": { "label": "left where they were taken", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. most come wild from indonesia. when they go, the insects they ate stay, and pesticide use rises." }, "facts": [ { "text": "europe imports about four thousand tonnes of frogs’ legs a year, france and belgium first.", "source": "Auliya et al. 2016; EU trade data" } ], "method": "Auliya et al. 2016: EU import tonnage converted to individuals.", "range": "80–200 million/yr (EU imports only)", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "conversion from tonnes to individuals depends on species mix; excludes domestic consumption in asia." }, { "id": "LGR-028", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "whales", "latin": "Cetacea", "kind": "free", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": "because we stopped.", "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 1300, "per_second": 0.00004119451415823764 }, "right": { "label": "born, free", "per_year": 100000, "per_second": 0.003168808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": "the only ticking channel where the numbers diverge." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about three a day. many were older than you.", "source": "IWC catch records" } ], "method": "IWC catch records: commercial (Norway, Iceland, Japan) plus aboriginal subsistence takes. births from population size × birth rate.", "range": "deaths 1,000–1,600/yr; births 60,000–150,000/yr", "confidence": "count (deaths); estimate (births)", "weakness": "birth number depends on population estimates that carry ±30% error." }, { "id": "LGR-029", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "chickens, ducks, turkeys", "latin": "culled for bird flu · estimated", "kind": "cull", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by humans", "per_year": 120000000, "per_second": 3.802570537683474 }, "right": { "label": "found infected", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "a fraction. if one bird tests positive the whole shed is killed. gassed, foamed, or the ventilation shut off. not eaten. buried or composted." }, "facts": [ { "text": "over half a billion birds since 2021. the disease is a product of the sheds it is meant to protect: forty thousand near-identical birds in one room is how a virus learns.", "source": "WOAH; USDA APHIS; Nature 2023" }, { "text": "in 2024 the same virus walked into american dairy herds, and then into people who milk them.", "source": "CDC; USDA 2024-25" }, { "text": "these are on the animal ledger. they were killed by humans. nobody counts them as slaughter.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "WOAH and national reports of birds culled in HPAI outbreaks, annualised over 2021–2025.", "range": "50–200 million/yr, highly variable by year", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "outbreak years differ tenfold; the annual figure is an average, not a rate." }, { "id": "LGR-030", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "badgers", "latin": "Meles meles · england", "kind": "cull", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed to protect cattle from tuberculosis", "per_year": 20000, "per_second": 0.000633761756280579 }, "right": { "label": "cattle killed for tuberculosis, england", "per_year": 25000, "per_second": 0.0007922021953507238, "fixed": null, "note": "the same disease, both sides of the fence." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 230,000 badgers shot since 2013. whether it lowers tb in cattle is contested. the ledger is not.", "source": "DEFRA; Godfray review 2018; Langton et al. 2022" }, { "text": "tuberculosis crosses from cattle to people in unpasteurised milk: about 140,000 human cases and 11,000 deaths a year, mostly where milk is not treated.", "source": "WHO / OIE / FAO 2017" } ], "method": "DEFRA cull returns for England, annualised; cattle figures are DEFRA bovine TB slaughter statistics for England.", "range": "badgers 10,000–35,000/yr; cattle 20,000–30,000/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "the cull is being wound down; the rate will fall. whether it reduces bovine TB is scientifically contested and the site says so." }, { "id": "LGR-031", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "fertilizer", "latin": "nitrogen, phosphate, potash", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "spread, in kilograms", "per_year": 190000000000, "per_second": 6020.7366846655 }, "right": { "label": "lost to air and water, in kilograms", "per_year": 95000000000, "per_second": 3010.36834233275, "fixed": null, "note": "about half never reaches a plant." }, "facts": [ { "text": "a third of the world’s cropland grows food for animals, not people.", "source": "FAO; Mottet et al. 2017" }, { "text": "the runoff makes dead zones. the one in the gulf of mexico covers thousands of square kilometres each summer.", "source": "NOAA" }, { "text": "about six tonnes a second, every second.", "source": "FAO fertilizer statistics" } ], "method": "FAO fertilizer statistics: total N + P2O5 + K2O nutrient use. losses = 1 − nitrogen use efficiency (~50%).", "range": "185–200 million tonnes/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "'lost to air and water' applies a nitrogen efficiency figure to total nutrients, which overstates phosphate and potash losses; the order of magnitude holds." }, { "id": "LGR-032", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "pesticides", "latin": "herbicides, insecticides, fungicides", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "applied, in kilograms", "per_year": 3700000000, "per_second": 117.24592491190711 }, "right": { "label": "people poisoned, survived", "per_year": 385000000, "per_second": 12.199913808401146, "fixed": null, "note": "mostly farmworkers. mostly unreported." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 120 kilograms every second.", "source": "FAO pesticide use statistics" }, { "text": "385 million people a year are poisoned by pesticides and live. about 11,000 don’t.", "source": "Boedeker et al. 2020, BMC Public Health" }, { "text": "paraquat is associated with parkinson’s disease. it is banned in the EU and manufactured there for export.", "source": "Tanner et al. 2011; Unearthed 2020" }, { "text": "glyphosate is the most used pesticide on earth. the WHO’s cancer agency calls it probably carcinogenic. most regulators disagree.", "source": "IARC 2015; EFSA; EPA" }, { "text": "a kilogram is not a kilogram. tonnage says nothing about toxicity.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "FAO pesticide use statistics (active ingredient). poisonings from Boedeker et al. 2020.", "range": "3.5–4.2 million tonnes/yr; poisonings 385 million/yr with wide CI", "confidence": "count (tonnage); estimate (poisonings)", "weakness": "tonnage is not toxicity, and the site says so on screen. poisoning figure is a systematic review estimate." }, { "id": "LGR-033", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "reservoirs", "latin": "evaporation from dammed water", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "evaporated, in cubic metres", "per_year": 346000000000, "per_second": 10964.078383654018 }, "right": { "label": "returned", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. it goes to the sky, and comes down somewhere else, or not." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about eleven thousand cubic metres a second. roughly a third of agriculture’s water goes to animals.", "source": "Tian et al. 2022; Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2012" }, { "text": "dammed water evaporates faster than the river it replaced. the loss is designed in.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "Tian et al. 2022 global reservoir evaporation estimate.", "range": "250–400 km³/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "depends on reservoir surface area and climate data; the livestock water share is from a different study (Mekonnen & Hoekstra)." }, { "id": "LGR-034", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "groundwater", "latin": "pumped faster than rain refills it", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "depleted, in cubic metres", "per_year": 283000000000, "per_second": 8967.728851370193 }, "right": { "label": "refilled", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. some aquifers took ten thousand years to fill." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about nine thousand cubic metres a second, mostly for irrigation: the north china plain, northwest india, the ogallala.", "source": "Wada et al. 2010; GRACE" }, { "text": "seventy percent of all freshwater humans take goes to farming.", "source": "FAO AQUASTAT" } ], "method": "Wada et al. 2010 global groundwater depletion; corroborated by GRACE satellite gravimetry.", "range": "200–300 km³/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "regional depletion is well measured; global sums are less certain." }, { "id": "LGR-035", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "forest", "latin": "cleared, and coming back", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "GLAD deforestation alerts, weekly", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "cleared, in hectares", "per_year": 10000000, "per_second": 0.3168808781402895 }, "right": { "label": "regrown, in hectares", "per_year": 5300000, "per_second": 0.16794686541435344, "fixed": null, "note": "about half. much of it is plantation. some of it is forest." }, "facts": [ { "text": "net loss has fallen from about 7.8 million hectares a year in the 1990s to about 4.7 million now. slower. not stopped.", "source": "FAO Forest Resources Assessment 2020" }, { "text": "the largest single cause of clearing is cattle. then soy, palm oil, and wood.", "source": "Pendrill et al. 2019; Curtis et al. 2018, Science" }, { "text": "abandoned farmland grows back on its own. nobody plants new england. it came back when the farms left.", "source": "Foster & Aber 2004; forest transition literature" } ], "method": "FAO Forest Resources Assessment 2020: gross deforestation and gross expansion, 2015–2020.", "range": "loss 9–11 Mha/yr; gain 5–6 Mha/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "FAO relies on national reporting; satellite products (GFW) show higher loss. 'regrown' includes plantations." }, { "id": "LGR-036", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "foie gras", "latin": "ducks and geese, force-fed · already counted under ducks", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "force-fed", "per_year": 40000000, "per_second": 1.267523512561158 }, "right": { "label": "countries where it is illegal to make", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "over 20", "note": "and legal in france, which makes three quarters of it. the eu bans it in principle and exempts it in practice." }, "facts": [ { "text": "a tube down the throat two or three times a day for about two weeks. the liver swells to ten times its size. the medical name is hepatic steatosis.", "source": "EFSA 1998; CIFOG" }, { "text": "not added to the total on this page: these ducks are already there.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "CIFOG / EU production statistics: ducks and geese force-fed per year.", "range": "35–45 million/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "a subset of the ducks channel; explicitly not added to the total." }, { "id": "LGR-037", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "what cats kill", "latin": "birds and small mammals · united states only", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by cats we keep or abandoned", "per_year": 16000000000, "per_second": 507.0094050244632 }, "right": { "label": "worldwide", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. australia counts about a billion and a half a year. most countries do not count." }, "facts": [ { "text": "not killed by humans, so not in the total on this page. killed by animals we breed, keep and let go. the range is wide: one to four billion birds, six to twenty-two billion mammals, a year, in one country.", "source": "Loss, Will & Marra 2013, Nature Communications; Murphy et al. 2019 (australia)" }, { "text": "unowned cats do most of it. the ones we abandoned.", "source": "Loss et al. 2013" } ], "method": "Loss, Will & Marra 2013 (US); Murphy et al. 2019 (australia). midpoint of a wide range.", "range": "US: 1.3–4 billion birds and 6.3–22 billion mammals/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "the widest range on the animal side of the site; explicitly not counted in the killed-by-humans total." }, { "id": "LGR-038", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "carbon", "latin": "carbon dioxide, tonnes", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "emitted", "per_year": 41000000000, "per_second": 1299.211600375187 }, "right": { "label": "captured by machines", "per_year": 10000, "per_second": 0.0003168808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": "direct air capture, all plants on earth. the ocean and the land take about half of the left column for free. the rest stays for centuries." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about a quarter to a third of the left column is the food system: the animals, the feed, the cleared land, the fertilizer.", "source": "Global Carbon Project 2024; Crippa et al. 2021" }, { "text": "the largest carbon capture plant on earth removes in a year what the world emits in about ten seconds.", "source": "Climeworks Mammoth; IEA DAC tracker" }, { "text": "every second on this page: about as much co2 as thirty cars driving for a year.", "source": "Global Carbon Project; EPA" } ], "method": "Global Carbon Budget 2024: fossil + land-use CO2. capture: IEA tracker of operating direct air capture.", "range": "emissions 39–42 Gt CO2/yr; DAC 0.005–0.05 Mt/yr", "confidence": "count (emissions); count (capture)", "weakness": "'captured by machines' excludes CCS at point sources (~45 Mt/yr), which is a different thing; the site compares air to air." }, { "id": "LGR-039", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "soil", "latin": "topsoil, tonnes", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "eroded from farmland", "per_year": 24000000000, "per_second": 760.5141075366948 }, "right": { "label": "formed", "per_year": 1000000000, "per_second": 31.68808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": "about a twenty-fifth. soil forms at roughly a centimetre a century. ploughed land loses it at roughly a millimetre a year." }, "facts": [ { "text": "a third of the world’s soil is degraded. most of the loss is from tilled cropland, and most of the cropland grows feed and grain.", "source": "FAO 2015 Status of the World’s Soil Resources; Borrelli et al. 2017" }, { "text": "the dust bowl was this, in one decade, in one place. it is happening everywhere, slowly.", "source": "Montgomery 2007, Dirt" } ], "method": "UNCCD/FAO figure of ~24 Gt/yr; Borrelli et al. 2017 (36 Gt water erosion). formation from Montgomery 2007 rates × cropland area.", "range": "eroded 20–36 Gt/yr; formed 0.5–2 Gt/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "both sides are modeled; the ratio (about 25×) is more robust than either number." }, { "id": "LGR-040", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "mines", "latin": "tailings and mercury", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "mine waste, tonnes", "per_year": 14000000000, "per_second": 443.6332293964053 }, "right": { "label": "mercury into rivers, kilograms", "per_year": 840000, "per_second": 0.026617993763784317, "fixed": null, "note": "the largest source of mercury pollution on earth is not industry. it is fifteen to twenty million people panning gold with quicksilver." }, "facts": [ { "text": "tailings are held behind about 30,000 dams. brumadinho, 2019: 270 dead in minutes. nobody counts all the dams.", "source": "ICOLD; Global Tailings Review 2020" }, { "text": "a phone holds about sixty elements. each one came out of a hole.", "source": "USGS" }, { "text": "this page is served from machines built from those holes.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "tailings from global mine production and ore grades (Adiansyah et al. 2015; Global Tailings Review); mercury from UNEP Global Mercury Assessment 2018 (ASGM share).", "range": "tailings 10–14 Gt/yr; ASGM mercury 700–1,000 t/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "tailings tonnage is derived, not reported; ASGM mercury is by nature informal." }, { "id": "LGR-041", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "data centres", "latin": "this page is running in one", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "electricity used, kilowatt-hours", "per_year": 415000000000, "per_second": 13150.556442822015 }, "right": { "label": "water evaporated to cool them", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. most companies do not report it. one us estimate: seventeen billion gallons a year, in one country, direct use only." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about one and a half percent of the world’s electricity now, and the fastest-growing use of it. the projection is more than double by 2030, mostly for ai.", "source": "IEA 2025 Energy and AI; LBNL 2024" }, { "text": "the ledger’s own share is small and not zero. it is not exempt from itself.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "IEA 2025 Energy and AI: 415 TWh in 2024, ~945 TWh projected 2030; water from LBNL 2024 US report.", "range": "400–450 TWh/yr; water: US only, direct only", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "changing fast; the number should be a feed within a year. the site's own footprint is not measured, only acknowledged." }, { "id": "LGR-042", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "concrete", "latin": "the most used substance on earth after water", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "poured, tonnes", "per_year": 30000000000, "per_second": 950.6426344208685 }, "right": { "label": "co2 from making the cement, tonnes", "per_year": 2500000000, "per_second": 79.22021953507237, "fixed": null, "note": "about eight percent of the world’s emissions. if cement were a country it would be third." }, "facts": [ { "text": "humans now pour more concrete each year than the weight of every living thing on earth.", "source": "Elhacham et al. 2020, Nature; USGS" }, { "text": "sand is running out. the sand in deserts is the wrong shape. it is dredged from rivers and beaches, and the beaches go.", "source": "UNEP 2019 Sand and Sustainability" } ], "method": "USGS cement production (~4.1 Gt) scaled to concrete (~30 Gt); cement CO2 from GCP/Andrew.", "range": "concrete 25–33 Gt/yr; CO2 2.3–2.7 Gt/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "concrete tonnage is inferred from cement; the 'weight of every living thing' comparison is Elhacham 2020 (biomass ~4 Gt wet)." }, { "id": "LGR-043", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "shipping", "latin": "about 100,000 ships", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "fuel burned, tonnes", "per_year": 300000000, "per_second": 9.506426344208686 }, "right": { "label": "co2 from it, tonnes", "per_year": 1000000000, "per_second": 31.68808781402895, "fixed": null, "note": "about three percent of the world’s. ninety percent of everything you own came by sea." }, "facts": [ { "text": "in 2020 ships were made to cut the sulphur in their fuel by four fifths. the air over the sea got cleaner. the haze had been shading the ocean, and without it the ocean measurably warmed. cleaning one thing uncovered another.", "source": "IMO 2020; Yuan et al. 2024, Communications Earth & Environment" }, { "text": "most of the tonnage is oil, coal, iron ore and grain. a good share of the grain is feed.", "source": "UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport" } ], "method": "IMO Fourth GHG Study 2020: fuel and CO2; sulphur-cap warming from Yuan et al. 2024.", "range": "fuel 280–330 Mt/yr; CO2 0.9–1.1 Gt/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "the warming effect of the sulphur cap is a modeled attribution, in the tens of hundredths of a degree over decades; stated as measurable, not large." }, { "id": "LGR-044", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "cruise ships", "latin": "about 300 of them", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "sewage discharged, litres", "per_year": 3800000000, "per_second": 120.41473369331001 }, "right": { "label": "passengers at sea right now", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "~600 000", "note": "about thirty million a year, a week each. a large ship burns about the fuel of a small town." }, "facts": [ { "text": "one company’s fleet emitted ten times the sulphur oxides of all of europe’s cars in one year.", "source": "Transport & Environment 2019" }, { "text": "the sewage is legal beyond twelve miles. most of it is treated. some of it is not. nobody is out there checking.", "source": "US EPA 2008 cruise ship discharge assessment; Friends of the Earth" } ], "method": "EPA 2008 discharge assessment scaled to today's fleet; passenger numbers from CLIA; T&E 2019 for sulphur.", "range": "sewage 3–5 billion litres/yr; at-sea passengers 500,000–700,000", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "discharge is estimated from per-passenger figures, not measured at sea." }, { "id": "LGR-045", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "manure", "latin": "from farmed animals, tonnes", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "produced", "per_year": 3500000000, "per_second": 110.90830734910132 }, "right": { "label": "human sewage, for scale", "per_year": 500000000, "per_second": 15.844043907014475, "fixed": null, "note": "in the united states, livestock produce more than a hundred times the waste of people, and almost none of it is treated." }, "facts": [ { "text": "it is where the ammonia comes from, and the ammonia is where much of the farm air pollution comes from, and the air pollution is on this ledger under humans.", "source": "US EPA; Domingo et al. 2021" }, { "text": "spread on fields it is fertilizer. in lagoons it is a lake. when the lagoon breaks, the river dies.", "source": "NC hurricane floyd 1999; EPA CAFO reports" } ], "method": "FAO livestock excretion estimates; US EPA for the livestock:human ratio; human sewage as an order-of-magnitude comparator.", "range": "3–4 Gt/yr (fresh weight)", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "wet vs dry weight is a factor of several; the site uses fresh weight for both sides." }, { "id": "LGR-046", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "solar", "latin": "kilowatt-hours", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "from the sun", "per_year": 2000000000000, "per_second": 63376.1756280579 }, "right": { "label": "from coal", "per_year": 10400000000000, "per_second": 329556.1132659011, "fixed": null, "note": "coal is still the largest source of electricity on earth. solar is the fastest-growing source of energy in history." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 47 solar panels are installed somewhere on earth every second. solar was about seven percent of the world’s electricity in 2024, up from one percent in 2015.", "source": "Ember Global Electricity Review 2025; IEA" }, { "text": "a panel repays the energy that made it in one to two years and runs for twenty-five to thirty. it is not free. it wins anyway.", "source": "Fraunhofer ISE PV Report 2024; IPCC AR5 Annex III" }, { "text": "most panels are made in china on a coal grid. that is where their carbon comes from, and it is falling as the grid does.", "source": "IEA Special Report on Solar PV Supply Chains 2022" } ], "method": "Ember 2025: solar generation ~2,000 TWh (2024); coal ~10,400 TWh. panels/second from ~600 GW installed per year at ~400 W each.", "range": "solar 1,900–2,200 TWh; coal 10,000–10,700 TWh", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "annual figures; both are moving fast in opposite directions, so this channel dates quickly and should be a feed." }, { "id": "LGR-047", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "satellites", "latin": "the sky, being fenced", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "Space-Track / CelesTrak, live catalogue", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "launched", "per_year": 3000, "per_second": 0.00009506426344208685 }, "right": { "label": "working, in orbit right now", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "~13 00", "note": "most belong to one company. around them: 40,000 tracked pieces of debris, and over a million too small to track." }, "facts": [ { "text": "this is the best-kept ledger on the site. every satellite is registered and tracked to the metre. we count the sky better than we count the sea.", "source": "UN Registration Convention; Space-Track; CelesTrak" }, { "text": "almost every number here comes from up there: the fires, the forest, the groundwater, the sea. the thing being counted is also the counter.", "source": "NASA FIRMS; GRACE; Landsat; Copernicus" }, { "text": "when they fall, they burn, and leave aluminium oxide in the stratosphere. early evidence says it eats ozone.", "source": "Ferreira et al. 2024, GRL; Murphy et al. 2023, PNAS" }, { "text": "the sky is getting brighter by about ten percent a year. a child born where 250 stars are visible will see about 100 by the time they are 18.", "source": "Kyba et al. 2023, Science" } ], "method": "launch rate from recent years (Jonathan McDowell); active count from CelesTrak/UCS.", "range": "2,500–3,500 launched/yr; 12,000–14,000 active", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "changes monthly; this is the channel most in need of a feed." }, { "id": "LGR-048", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "extinctions", "latin": "species gone for good", "kind": "flow", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "gone forever · modeled", "per_year": 500, "per_second": 0.000015844043907014474 }, "right": { "label": "recorded, since 1500", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "~900", "note": "no ledger. most species were never named, so most extinctions are never recorded. the two columns disagree by a factor of hundreds; that is the finding." }, "facts": [ { "text": "the modeled rate runs from about a hundred a year to tens of thousands, depending on the method. this counter sits in the middle. the range is the honest number.", "source": "Pimm et al. 2014; Ceballos et al. 2015; IUCN Red List" }, { "text": "on land the leading cause is farming. at sea it is fishing. of threatened land vertebrates, most are threatened by agriculture.", "source": "IPBES 2019; Tilman et al. 2017" }, { "text": "a million species are threatened with extinction, many within decades.", "source": "IPBES 2019" } ], "method": "modeled rate set mid-literature (~500 species/yr); documented count from the IUCN Red List (EX + EW).", "range": "100–30,000/yr depending on method; documented ~900 since 1500", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "the largest disagreement on the site, by design shown as two columns. the ticking number is a stand-in for a range that spans two orders of magnitude." }, { "id": "LGR-049", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died from pesticide poisoning", "per_year": 11000, "per_second": 0.00034856896595431843 }, "right": { "label": "poisoned, survived", "per_year": 385000000, "per_second": 12.199913808401146, "fixed": null, "note": "unintentional. the self-poisoning figure is larger and lives in the methodology, handled with care." }, "facts": [ { "text": "most are farmworkers in low and middle income countries.", "source": "Boedeker et al. 2020" } ], "method": "Boedeker et al. 2020: unintentional acute poisoning deaths.", "range": "~11,000/yr; wide CI", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "excludes chronic disease and self-poisoning (110,000–168,000/yr, Mew et al. 2017), which lives here and not on the front door, handled with care." }, { "id": "LGR-050", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died early from farm air pollution", "per_year": 600000, "per_second": 0.01901285268841737 }, "right": { "label": "the livestock share", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "most of it. ammonia from manure and fertilizer becomes fine particulate." }, "facts": [ { "text": "an estimate with a wide range. the point is the order of magnitude.", "source": "Lelieveld et al. 2015; Domingo et al. 2021" } ], "method": "agricultural share of PM2.5 mortality from Lelieveld et al. 2015; livestock share from Domingo et al. 2021 (US).", "range": "400,000–800,000/yr", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "attribution models differ; the site uses the order of magnitude and says so." }, { "id": "LGR-051", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died early from breathing outdoor air", "per_year": 4700000, "per_second": 0.14893401272593607 }, "right": { "label": "from cooking smoke, indoors", "per_year": 3100000, "per_second": 0.09823307222348975, "fixed": null, "note": "mostly women and children. mostly wood, dung and coal. about two billion people still cook this way." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about eight million a year in all. more than malaria, tuberculosis and hiv together.", "source": "State of Global Air 2024; WHO" }, { "text": "both numbers are falling in most of the world and rising in south asia. the smoke moved. it did not go away.", "source": "AQLI; State of Global Air 2024" }, { "text": "a share of delhi’s winter air is farmers burning rice stubble to plant wheat. that share is on this site’s ledger.", "source": "IIT Kanpur; SAFAR; CREA" } ], "method": "State of Global Air 2024 / GBD 2021 for outdoor PM2.5 and household air pollution.", "range": "outdoor 4–5 million/yr; household 2.5–3.5 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "none material for the totals; the food-system share is not quantified here." }, { "id": "LGR-052", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by animals", "per_year": 1000000, "per_second": 0.03168808781402895 }, "right": { "label": "killed by other humans, for scale", "per_year": 460000, "per_second": 0.014576520394453316, "fixed": null, "note": "the deadliest animal on earth is the mosquito, about seven hundred thousand a year. the second is us." }, "facts": [ { "text": "snakes about a hundred thousand. dogs, by rabies, about sixty thousand. freshwater snails, by schistosomiasis, about twelve thousand. crocodiles about a thousand. hippos about five hundred. sharks about ten.", "source": "WHO; GBD 2019; CrocBITE; ISAF" }, { "text": "sharks kill about ten people a year. people kill about a hundred million sharks. both are on this ledger.", "source": "ISAF; Worm et al. 2013" }, { "text": "tsetse flies killed tens of thousands a year in the 1990s and fewer than a thousand now. because we treated, and because we trapped the flies.", "source": "WHO sleeping sickness" } ], "method": "WHO and GBD 2019: malaria + dengue + other vector-borne (mosquito ~700k), snakebite, rabies, schistosomiasis, Chagas, leishmaniasis, large animals from incident databases.", "range": "0.8–1.2 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "attributes vector-borne disease deaths to the vector; the parasite does the killing. the large-animal counts are order of magnitude." }, { "id": "LGR-053", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by other humans", "per_year": 460000, "per_second": 0.014576520394453316 }, "right": { "label": "killed in armed conflict", "per_year": 200000, "per_second": 0.00633761756280579, "fixed": null, "note": "the war count is always contested and always late. the murder count is only slightly better." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 250,000 people are shot dead a year, a third of them murdered, most of the rest by their own hand. eight in ten murder victims are men. so are most of the killers.", "source": "UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2023; Naghavi et al. 2018" }, { "text": "at least 1,500 executions were recorded last year. china executes thousands and does not say. terrorism killed about eight thousand.", "source": "Amnesty International 2024; Global Terrorism Index 2024" } ], "method": "UNODC Global Study on Homicide (2021 data); conflict deaths from Uppsala/ACLED, annualised.", "range": "homicide 400,000–500,000/yr; conflict 100,000–300,000/yr", "confidence": "count (homicide); estimate (conflict)", "weakness": "conflict counts lag by years and vary by source by a factor of two." }, { "id": "LGR-054", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed on the roads", "per_year": 1190000, "per_second": 0.03770882449869445 }, "right": { "label": "of them, on foot or on a bicycle", "per_year": 350000, "per_second": 0.011090830734910132, "fixed": null, "note": "the leading cause of death for people aged five to twenty-nine. most of the dead are not in the cars." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about a quarter of road deaths involve alcohol. in some countries a third.", "source": "WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023" }, { "text": "nine in ten road deaths are in low and middle income countries, which have six in ten of the vehicles.", "source": "WHO 2023" } ], "method": "WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023; vulnerable-user share and alcohol share from the same.", "range": "1.1–1.3 million/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "many countries under-report; WHO models the gap." }, { "id": "LGR-055", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by tobacco", "per_year": 8000000, "per_second": 0.2535047025122316 }, "right": { "label": "of them, from someone else’s smoke", "per_year": 1300000, "per_second": 0.04119451415823763, "fixed": null, "note": "the largest single preventable cause of death on earth. legal everywhere." }, "facts": [ { "text": "more than malaria, tuberculosis and hiv together, every year, and it is sold in shops.", "source": "WHO tobacco fact sheet 2023" }, { "text": "smoking is falling almost everywhere. because we taxed it, banned it indoors, and stopped letting it advertise. slowly.", "source": "WHO global tobacco trends 2024" } ], "method": "WHO tobacco fact sheet: >8 million/yr including ~1.3 million from second-hand smoke.", "range": "7.5–8.5 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "attributable-fraction estimate; the strongest such estimate in epidemiology." }, { "id": "LGR-056", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by alcohol", "per_year": 2600000, "per_second": 0.08238902831647527 }, "right": { "label": "killed by other drugs", "per_year": 600000, "per_second": 0.01901285268841737, "fixed": null, "note": "one legal in most places, one mostly not. the ledger does not sort by law." }, "facts": [ { "text": "alcohol kills about four times as many people as all illegal drugs together.", "source": "WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol 2024; UNODC World Drug Report" }, { "text": "overdose deaths in the united states passed 100,000 a year in 2021, mostly fentanyl. they have started to fall.", "source": "CDC WONDER" } ], "method": "WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol 2024 (2.6M); UNODC World Drug Report for other drugs (~0.6M).", "range": "alcohol 2.4–3.0 million/yr; drugs 0.5–0.7 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "attributable-fraction estimates; drug deaths are undercounted where they are criminal." }, { "id": "LGR-057", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died of infections passed by sex", "per_year": 1100000, "per_second": 0.03485689659543185 }, "right": { "label": "newly infected with hiv", "per_year": 1300000, "per_second": 0.04119451415823763, "fixed": null, "note": "hiv about 630,000, cervical cancer from hpv about 350,000, syphilis and hepatitis the rest." }, "facts": [ { "text": "hiv came from chimpanzees, by bushmeat, around 1920. the animal ledger again.", "source": "Worobey et al. 2008; Sharp & Hahn 2011" }, { "text": "the hpv vaccine is ending cervical cancer where it is used: in vaccinated scottish women, no cases at all. because we vaccinated.", "source": "Palmer et al. 2024, JNCI; WHO cervical cancer elimination initiative" } ], "method": "UNAIDS (HIV deaths ~630k), WHO/IARC (cervical cancer ~350k, nearly all HPV), WHO (syphilis, hepatitis B share).", "range": "1.0–1.3 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "attribution of hepatitis B deaths to sexual transmission is partial; the site counts a share." }, { "id": "LGR-058", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by lead", "per_year": 1500000, "per_second": 0.047532131721043425 }, "right": { "label": "the true number", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. one recent estimate is 5.5 million, four times the old one. nobody is sure, and the range is the finding." }, "facts": [ { "text": "leaded petrol was banned in the last country, algeria, in 2021. children’s blood lead has fallen about tenfold where it was banned. because we stopped.", "source": "UNEP 2021; CDC NHANES" }, { "text": "it is still in old paint, old pipes, some spices, some pots, some cosmetics, and the batteries we recycle badly.", "source": "Larsen & Sandahl 2023, Lancet Planetary Health; Pure Earth" } ], "method": "GBD 2019 (~0.9M) and Larsen & Sandahl 2023 (~5.5M cardiovascular); the site shows 1.5M and states the range as the finding.", "range": "0.9–5.5 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the widest range on the human side of the site, by design shown as a dash for 'the true number'." }, { "id": "LGR-059", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by dirty water and no toilet", "per_year": 1400000, "per_second": 0.04436332293964053 }, "right": { "label": "of them, children under five", "per_year": 395000, "per_second": 0.012516794686541436, "fixed": null, "note": "diarrhoeal disease, mostly. water is a plumbing problem, and plumbing is a decision." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 2 billion people drink water contaminated with faeces. about 3.5 billion have no safely managed toilet.", "source": "WHO/UNICEF JMP 2023; WHO burden of disease from WASH 2023" } ], "method": "WHO burden of disease from inadequate WASH 2023 (1.4M); child share from the same.", "range": "1.2–1.6 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "attributable-fraction estimate; diarrhoeal deaths are also falling fast, so this dates." }, { "id": "LGR-060", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed at work", "per_year": 2900000, "per_second": 0.09189545466068395 }, "right": { "label": "of them, in accidents", "per_year": 330000, "per_second": 0.010457068978629554, "fixed": null, "note": "the rest is disease: dust, chemicals, heat, hours. most of it in the supply chains of things you own." }, "facts": [ { "text": "fishing is the deadliest job on earth: about 100,000 a year. mining, construction and farming follow.", "source": "ILO 2023; FISH Safety Foundation 2022" }, { "text": "slaughterhouse workers are hurt at about twice the average rate. in the united states, an amputation about every week.", "source": "US GAO 2016; OSHA severe injury reports" } ], "method": "ILO 2023 estimates: ~2.9M work-related deaths incl. disease; ~330k accidents; fishing from FISH Safety Foundation 2022.", "range": "2.6–3.2 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "occupational disease attribution is modeled; the fishing figure is an NGO estimate several times the old official one." }, { "id": "LGR-061", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died of hunger and its diseases", "per_year": 9000000, "per_second": 0.28519279032626055 }, "right": { "label": "calories grown per person per day", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": "~2 900", "note": "the world grows enough. about a third of the crop goes to animals, and most of what they eat does not come back as food." }, "facts": [ { "text": "about 25,000 a day, half of them children. it is not a shortage. it is a distribution.", "source": "FAO SOFI 2024; UN WFP; Cassidy et al. 2013" }, { "text": "every channel on this site is one channel.", "source": "methodology note" } ], "method": "widely used UN-based estimate of ~9 million hunger-related deaths/yr; calories per capita from FAO food balance sheets; feed share from Cassidy et al. 2013.", "range": "7–11 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "'hunger-related' includes deaths where undernutrition is a contributing cause; the number is contested and the site rounds." }, { "id": "LGR-062", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "killed by heat", "per_year": 490000, "per_second": 0.015527163028874186 }, "right": { "label": "of them, from the warming we caused", "per_year": 180000, "per_second": 0.005703855806525211, "fixed": null, "note": "about a third of heat deaths are now attributable to human warming. the share rises every year." }, "facts": [ { "text": "cold still kills more people than heat, about 4.6 million a year. that is falling. this is rising.", "source": "Zhao et al. 2021, Lancet Planetary Health; Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021" }, { "text": "the people who die of heat are mostly old, poor, and outdoors: farm workers, builders, the unhoused.", "source": "WHO; ILO" } ], "method": "Zhao et al. 2021 (heat deaths ~490k); Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021 for the anthropogenic share (~37%).", "range": "400,000–600,000/yr; attributable share 20–50%", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "attribution studies cover a subset of countries; the site applies the share globally." }, { "id": "LGR-063", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humans", "latin": "Homo sapiens", "kind": "human", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ, air in ten thousand cities right now", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "died from drug-resistant infections", "per_year": 1270000, "per_second": 0.04024387152381677 }, "right": { "label": "the share from farm antibiotics", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "no ledger. most of the world’s antibiotics go to animals. no one has measured what comes back." }, "facts": [ { "text": "1.27 million deaths a year directly attributable to resistance. the farm share is unquantified, not zero.", "source": "Murray et al. 2022; Van Boeckel et al. 2019" } ], "method": "Murray et al. 2022 (GRAM): deaths directly attributable to bacterial AMR, 2019.", "range": "0.9–1.7 million/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the farm-antibiotic share is unquantified, and the site shows a dash rather than a number." }, { "id": "LGR-064", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the amazon", "latin": "active fires, last 24 hours · nasa firms", "kind": "live", "action": false, "badge": "feed (stub)", "feedable": "NASA FIRMS, active fires every 3 hours", "closer": null, "good": false, "left": { "label": "fires detected · feed not connected", "fixed": "?" }, "right": { "label": "lit on purpose", "per_year": null, "per_second": null, "fixed": null, "note": "most. the forest does not burn on its own; it is cut, dried, and set alight for pasture and soy." }, "facts": [ { "text": "this is the site’s first feed: satellite fire detections over the amazon in the last 24 hours, counted every three hours. when the feed is down or not yet wired, the number is a question mark, not a guess.", "source": "NASA FIRMS (VIIRS); INPE; MapBiomas" } ], "method": "placeholder for NASA FIRMS active fire detections in the last 24 hours, Amazon biome.", "range": "hundreds (wet season) to tens of thousands (peak days)", "confidence": "feed (stub)", "weakness": "a stand-in number until wired. clearly badged." }, { "id": "LGR-065", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the sea", "latin": "global surface temperature", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "NOAA OISST, daily", "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "°C", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "-0.05", "right": "0.72", "text": "the sea is 0.77°C warmer than the day you were born.", "note": "about a quarter to a third of the warming behind that is the food system.", "source": "HadSST / NOAA anomalies vs 1961-90; Crippa et al. 2021", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "0.00", "right": "0.72", "text": "the sea is 0.72°C warmer than the day you were born.", "note": "about a quarter to a third of the warming behind that is the food system.", "source": "HadSST / NOAA anomalies vs 1961-90; Crippa et al. 2021", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "0.20", "right": "0.72", "text": "the sea is 0.52°C warmer than the day you were born.", "note": "about a quarter to a third of the warming behind that is the food system.", "source": "HadSST / NOAA anomalies vs 1961-90; Crippa et al. 2021", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "0.42", "right": "0.72", "text": "the sea is 0.30°C warmer than the day you were born.", "note": "about a quarter to a third of the warming behind that is the food system.", "source": "HadSST / NOAA anomalies vs 1961-90; Crippa et al. 2021", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "global sea-surface temperature anomaly by year (HadSST/NOAA), difference between birth year and now.", "range": "±0.05°C on any year's anomaly", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "food-system share of warming (a quarter to a third) is from emissions share (Crippa 2021), not a warming attribution study." }, { "id": "LGR-066", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the ozone hole", "latin": "antarctic, peak area", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "million km²", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "0", "right": "22", "text": "there was no hole when you were born. it opened, peaked around 2000, and is closing.", "note": "the montreal protocol, 1987. every country on earth signed it.", "source": "NASA Ozone Watch; WMO 2022 assessment", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "0", "right": "22", "text": "there was no hole when you were born. it opened, peaked around 2000, and is closing.", "note": "the montreal protocol, 1987. every country on earth signed it.", "source": "NASA Ozone Watch; WMO 2022 assessment", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "21", "right": "22", "text": "it peaked around 2000 and is closing. it should be healed by about 2066.", "note": "the montreal protocol, 1987. every country on earth signed it.", "source": "NASA Ozone Watch; WMO 2022 assessment", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "22", "right": "22", "text": "it peaked around 2000 and is closing. it should be healed by about 2066.", "note": "the montreal protocol, 1987. every country on earth signed it.", "source": "NASA Ozone Watch; WMO 2022 assessment", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "NASA Ozone Watch maximum daily area by year; healing date from WMO 2022.", "range": "year-to-year variation ±5 million km²", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "a single-year value is noisy; the trend is not." }, { "id": "LGR-067", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "humpback whales", "latin": "Megaptera novaeangliae", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "32 878", "right": "84 000", "text": "hunted to a few thousand by 1966. now over eighty thousand.", "note": "commercial whaling stopped in 1966 for humpbacks, 1986 for nearly everything.", "source": "IUCN; IWC", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "7 500", "right": "84 000", "text": "there are about 76 500 more than when you were born.", "note": "commercial whaling stopped in 1966 for humpbacks, 1986 for nearly everything.", "source": "IUCN; IWC", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "20 000", "right": "84 000", "text": "there are about 64 000 more than when you were born.", "note": "commercial whaling stopped in 1966 for humpbacks, 1986 for nearly everything.", "source": "IUCN; IWC", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "60 000", "right": "84 000", "text": "there are about 24 000 more than when you were born.", "note": "commercial whaling stopped in 1966 for humpbacks, 1986 for nearly everything.", "source": "IUCN; IWC", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "IUCN/IWC population estimates by decade, interpolated.", "range": "±25% on any decade", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "decade anchors, interpolated. wants a proper series." }, { "id": "LGR-068", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the aral sea", "latin": "once the fourth largest lake on earth", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "km²", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "68 000", "right": "8 000", "text": "it was drained for cotton. deliberately. within your lifetime.", "note": "the rivers that fed it were diverted to irrigate cotton. it is the clearest example of a lake we chose to lose.", "source": "NASA Earth Observatory; UNEP", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "60 000", "right": "8 000", "text": "it has lost 87% of its area since you were born.", "note": "the rivers that fed it were diverted to irrigate cotton. it is the clearest example of a lake we chose to lose.", "source": "NASA Earth Observatory; UNEP", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "37 000", "right": "8 000", "text": "it has lost 78% of its area since you were born.", "note": "the rivers that fed it were diverted to irrigate cotton. it is the clearest example of a lake we chose to lose.", "source": "NASA Earth Observatory; UNEP", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "14 000", "right": "8 000", "text": "it has lost 43% of its area since you were born.", "note": "the rivers that fed it were diverted to irrigate cotton. it is the clearest example of a lake we chose to lose.", "source": "NASA Earth Observatory; UNEP", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "NASA Earth Observatory / UNEP surface area by decade.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "the sea has fragmented; 'area' is the sum of the remnants." }, { "id": "LGR-069", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "dead zones", "latin": "coastal waters too low in oxygen for animals", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "known sites", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "40", "right": "700", "text": "about 18× as many as when you were born.", "note": "fertilizer and manure run to the sea, algae bloom, rot, and take the oxygen with them. the count roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s.", "source": "Diaz & Rosenberg 2008, Science; Breitburg et al. 2018", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "87", "right": "700", "text": "about 8× as many as when you were born.", "note": "fertilizer and manure run to the sea, algae bloom, rot, and take the oxygen with them. the count roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s.", "source": "Diaz & Rosenberg 2008, Science; Breitburg et al. 2018", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "305", "right": "700", "text": "about 2× as many as when you were born.", "note": "fertilizer and manure run to the sea, algae bloom, rot, and take the oxygen with them. the count roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s.", "source": "Diaz & Rosenberg 2008, Science; Breitburg et al. 2018", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "500", "right": "700", "text": "about 1× as many as when you were born.", "note": "fertilizer and manure run to the sea, algae bloom, rot, and take the oxygen with them. the count roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s.", "source": "Diaz & Rosenberg 2008, Science; Breitburg et al. 2018", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Diaz & Rosenberg 2008 counts by decade; Breitburg et al. 2018 for recent totals.", "range": "500–700+ current sites depending on definition", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "a count of known sites rises with monitoring effort as well as with pollution." }, { "id": "LGR-070", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "drug resistance", "latin": "deaths a year directly attributable", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "deaths a year", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "?", "right": "1 200 000", "text": "no ledger. nobody was counting when you were born.", "note": "the first global estimate is for 1990. by 2050 the forecast is about 1.9 million a year, nearly double.", "source": "GRAM / Murray et al. 2022; Naghavi et al. 2024", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "?", "right": "1 200 000", "text": "no ledger. nobody was counting when you were born.", "note": "the first global estimate is for 1990. by 2050 the forecast is about 1.9 million a year, nearly double.", "source": "GRAM / Murray et al. 2022; Naghavi et al. 2024", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "1 000 000", "right": "1 200 000", "text": "by 2050, about 1.9 million a year. nearly double.", "note": "most of the world’s antibiotics by volume go to animals. the farm share of these deaths is unquantified, not zero.", "source": "GRAM / Murray et al. 2022; Naghavi et al. 2024; Van Boeckel et al. 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 096 551", "right": "1 200 000", "text": "by 2050, about 1.9 million a year. nearly double.", "note": "most of the world’s antibiotics by volume go to animals. the farm share of these deaths is unquantified, not zero.", "source": "GRAM / Murray et al. 2022; Naghavi et al. 2024; Van Boeckel et al. 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "GRAM estimates 1990–2021; forecast to 2050 from Naghavi et al. 2024.", "range": "as above", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "no data before 1990, shown as a dash." }, { "id": "LGR-071", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "european bison", "latin": "Bison bonasus", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "200", "right": "9 500", "text": "about 48× as many as when you were born. the last wild one was shot in 1927.", "note": "bred back from a dozen zoo animals and released into poland, belarus, romania, and now the netherlands and the uk.", "source": "European Bison Pedigree Book; Rewilding Europe", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "1 000", "right": "9 500", "text": "about 10× as many as when you were born. the last wild one was shot in 1927.", "note": "bred back from a dozen zoo animals and released into poland, belarus, romania, and now the netherlands and the uk.", "source": "European Bison Pedigree Book; Rewilding Europe", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "3 000", "right": "9 500", "text": "about 3× as many as when you were born. the last wild one was shot in 1927.", "note": "bred back from a dozen zoo animals and released into poland, belarus, romania, and now the netherlands and the uk.", "source": "European Bison Pedigree Book; Rewilding Europe", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "4 400", "right": "9 500", "text": "about 2× as many as when you were born. the last wild one was shot in 1927.", "note": "bred back from a dozen zoo animals and released into poland, belarus, romania, and now the netherlands and the uk.", "source": "European Bison Pedigree Book; Rewilding Europe", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "European Bison Pedigree Book, decade anchors interpolated.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "interpolated between anchors." }, { "id": "LGR-072", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "eurasian beavers", "latin": "Castor fiber", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "20 000", "right": "1 500 000", "text": "about 75× as many as when you were born.", "note": "protected, then reintroduced across europe. they build the wetlands nobody else will.", "source": "Halley, Saveljev & Rosell 2021, Mammal Review", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "100 000", "right": "1 500 000", "text": "about 15× as many as when you were born.", "note": "protected, then reintroduced across europe. they build the wetlands nobody else will.", "source": "Halley, Saveljev & Rosell 2021, Mammal Review", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "400 000", "right": "1 500 000", "text": "about 4× as many as when you were born.", "note": "protected, then reintroduced across europe. they build the wetlands nobody else will.", "source": "Halley, Saveljev & Rosell 2021, Mammal Review", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 000 000", "right": "1 500 000", "text": "about 2× as many as when you were born.", "note": "protected, then reintroduced across europe. they build the wetlands nobody else will.", "source": "Halley, Saveljev & Rosell 2021, Mammal Review", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Halley, Saveljev & Rosell 2021 with earlier anchors.", "range": "±25% on early decades", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "early-century numbers are reconstructions." }, { "id": "LGR-073", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "wolves in europe", "latin": "Canis lupus", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals, excluding russia", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "8 000", "right": "23 000", "text": "about 188% more than when you were born. they walked back into germany in 2000, the netherlands in 2018, belgium in 2018.", "note": "nobody released them. legal protection, and empty land, was enough.", "source": "Chapron et al. 2014, Science; LCIE 2023", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "8 000", "right": "23 000", "text": "about 188% more than when you were born. they walked back into germany in 2000, the netherlands in 2018, belgium in 2018.", "note": "nobody released them. legal protection, and empty land, was enough.", "source": "Chapron et al. 2014, Science; LCIE 2023", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "12 000", "right": "23 000", "text": "about 92% more than when you were born. they walked back into germany in 2000, the netherlands in 2018, belgium in 2018.", "note": "nobody released them. legal protection, and empty land, was enough.", "source": "Chapron et al. 2014, Science; LCIE 2023", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "14 000", "right": "23 000", "text": "about 64% more than when you were born. they walked back into germany in 2000, the netherlands in 2018, belgium in 2018.", "note": "nobody released them. legal protection, and empty land, was enough.", "source": "Chapron et al. 2014, Science; LCIE 2023", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Chapron et al. 2014; LCIE 2023; excludes Russia.", "range": "±15%", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "pre-1990 anchors are rough." }, { "id": "LGR-074", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "bald eagles", "latin": "Haliaeetus leucocephalus, lower 48 states", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "breeding pairs", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "417", "right": "71 400", "text": "417 pairs in 1963. over seventy thousand now.", "note": "DDT was banned in 1972. that was most of it.", "source": "US Fish & Wildlife Service 2020", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "739", "right": "71 400", "text": "about 97× as many as when you were born.", "note": "DDT was banned in 1972. that was most of it.", "source": "US Fish & Wildlife Service 2020", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "3 000", "right": "71 400", "text": "about 24× as many as when you were born.", "note": "DDT was banned in 1972. that was most of it.", "source": "US Fish & Wildlife Service 2020", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "25 191", "right": "71 400", "text": "about 3× as many as when you were born.", "note": "DDT was banned in 1972. that was most of it.", "source": "US Fish & Wildlife Service 2020", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "USFWS breeding-pair counts, lower 48 states.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-075", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "costa rica", "latin": "forest cover", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "% of land", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "65", "right": "58", "text": "when you were born the country was 65% forest. it fell to about a fifth by 1987. it is 58% now.", "note": "a 1996 law banned clearing forest. farmers were paid to leave it standing. it worked.", "source": "FONAFIFO; SINAC; World Bank", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "42", "right": "58", "text": "the forest has come back over 16% of the country since you were born.", "note": "a 1996 law banned clearing forest. farmers were paid to leave it standing. it worked.", "source": "FONAFIFO; SINAC; World Bank", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "27", "right": "58", "text": "the forest has come back over 31% of the country since you were born.", "note": "a 1996 law banned clearing forest. farmers were paid to leave it standing. it worked.", "source": "FONAFIFO; SINAC; World Bank", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "53", "right": "58", "text": "the forest has come back over 5% of the country since you were born.", "note": "a 1996 law banned clearing forest. farmers were paid to leave it standing. it worked.", "source": "FONAFIFO; SINAC; World Bank", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "FONAFIFO / SINAC forest cover by year.", "range": "±5 percentage points", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "definitions of 'forest' changed over the century." }, { "id": "LGR-076", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "europe’s forests", "latin": "growing, not shrinking", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "europe’s forests have grown by roughly the area of the united kingdom since 1990. nobody planted most of it. the farms left, and it came back.", "note": "much of it is young and some of it is plantation. it is still forest, and it is still growing.", "source": "FAO Forest Resources Assessment 2020; Global Forest Watch", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "FAO FRA 2020, Europe incl. Russia, 1990–2020 change (~+22 Mha).", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "'roughly the UK' is a size analogy; the UK is 24 Mha." }, { "id": "LGR-077", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the land", "latin": "what comes back, if we stop", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "without meat and dairy, the world’s farmland could shrink by about three quarters: an area the size of the united states, china, the european union and australia combined. most of it would go back to forest and grassland on its own.", "note": "the regrowth could pull several hundred billion tonnes of carbon dioxide out of the air over the century. the land is not the problem. what we do on it is.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018, Science; Hayek et al. 2021, Nature Sustainability", "closer": "if we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Poore & Nemecek 2018 (farmland reduction without animal products); Hayek et al. 2021 (carbon opportunity cost).", "range": "land −70 to −80%; carbon 330–550 Gt CO2", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "a scenario, not a prediction, and shown as 'if we stopped'." }, { "id": "LGR-078", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "satellites", "latin": "working, in orbit", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "Space-Track / CelesTrak, live catalogue", "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "satellites", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "0", "right": "13 000", "text": "there were none when you were born. the first went up in 1957.", "note": "nearly all of it is one company. the orbit is a commons. it is being enclosed the way the land was, and nobody voted on it.", "source": "Jonathan McDowell; UCS Satellite Database", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "200", "right": "13 000", "text": "about 65× as many as when you were born. most of the increase is since 2019.", "note": "nearly all of it is one company. the orbit is a commons. it is being enclosed the way the land was, and nobody voted on it.", "source": "Jonathan McDowell; UCS Satellite Database", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "500", "right": "13 000", "text": "about 26× as many as when you were born. most of the increase is since 2019.", "note": "nearly all of it is one company. the orbit is a commons. it is being enclosed the way the land was, and nobody voted on it.", "source": "Jonathan McDowell; UCS Satellite Database", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 000", "right": "13 000", "text": "about 13× as many as when you were born. most of the increase is since 2019.", "note": "nearly all of it is one company. the orbit is a commons. it is being enclosed the way the land was, and nobody voted on it.", "source": "Jonathan McDowell; UCS Satellite Database", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "active satellites by year, McDowell/UCS.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-079", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "london’s air", "latin": "smoke and fine particulate, annual mean", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "London Air Quality Network, hourly", "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "µg/m³", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "292", "right": "10", "text": "in december 1952 a smog killed about twelve thousand people in five days. the clean air act followed in 1956. the air is about fifty times cleaner than victorian london.", "note": "coal was banned from the city’s grates. that was most of it. what is left comes from exhausts and, on bad days, from farms and fires far away.", "source": "Fouquet 2011; Brimblecombe 1987; DEFRA / London Air Quality Network", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "60", "right": "10", "text": "about 6× cleaner than when you were born.", "note": "coal was banned from the city’s grates. that was most of it. what is left comes from exhausts and, on bad days, from farms and fires far away.", "source": "Fouquet 2011; Brimblecombe 1987; DEFRA / London Air Quality Network", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "25", "right": "10", "text": "about 2.5× cleaner than when you were born.", "note": "coal was banned from the city’s grates. that was most of it. what is left comes from exhausts and, on bad days, from farms and fires far away.", "source": "Fouquet 2011; Brimblecombe 1987; DEFRA / London Air Quality Network", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "15", "right": "10", "text": "about 1.5× cleaner than when you were born.", "note": "coal was banned from the city’s grates. that was most of it. what is left comes from exhausts and, on bad days, from farms and fires far away.", "source": "Fouquet 2011; Brimblecombe 1987; DEFRA / London Air Quality Network", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "annual mean smoke (pre-1990) and PM2.5 (post-1990) in µg/m³, harmonised approximately from Fouquet 2011, Brimblecombe 1987 and DEFRA/LAQN.", "range": "±30% on historical years", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "two different metrics stitched together; the shape is robust, the exact ratio is not." }, { "id": "LGR-080", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the smoke", "latin": "where it went", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": "OpenAQ", "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "micrograms of smoke in each cubic metre of air, over a year. london, 1890: about 500. london now: about 10. beijing, 2013: about 100. beijing now: about 35. delhi now: about 100. lahore now: about 100.", "note": "the same units, the same smoke. it did not go away. it moved to where the coal, the traffic and the crop fires are now. every city that cleaned its air did it the same way: it stopped burning the thing.", "source": "annual mean PM2.5, µg/m³: Fouquet 2011; China MEE; CPCB India; IQAir 2024", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "annual mean PM2.5 (or smoke) in µg/m³ for named cities and years.", "range": "±20%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "London 1890 is a reconstruction (Fouquet)." }, { "id": "LGR-081", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "polio", "latin": "children paralysed by wild poliovirus, a year", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "cases a year", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "600 000", "right": "40", "text": "when you were born there was no vaccine. iron lungs. now: a few dozen cases a year, in two countries.", "note": "it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.", "source": "WHO / Global Polio Eradication Initiative; pre-1988 figures are estimates", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "450 000", "right": "40", "text": "about 450 000 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.", "note": "it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.", "source": "WHO / Global Polio Eradication Initiative; pre-1988 figures are estimates", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "252 000", "right": "40", "text": "about 252 000 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.", "note": "it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.", "source": "WHO / Global Polio Eradication Initiative; pre-1988 figures are estimates", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 352", "right": "40", "text": "about 1 352 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.", "note": "it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.", "source": "WHO / Global Polio Eradication Initiative; pre-1988 figures are estimates", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null } ], "method": "WHO/GPEI wild poliovirus paralytic cases by year; pre-1988 back-estimates.", "range": "pre-1988 ±50%", "confidence": "count (post-1988); estimate (pre-1988)", "weakness": "the pre-1988 numbers are estimates and labelled so." }, { "id": "LGR-082", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "smallpox", "latin": "Variola", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "smallpox killed about 300 million people in the twentieth century. it has killed nobody since 1978.", "note": "the last natural case was a hospital cook in somalia, 1977. he lived. it is the only human disease we have ever finished.", "source": "WHO; Fenner et al. 1988", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null } ], "method": "WHO; Fenner et al. 1988.", "range": "20th-century deaths 300–500 million", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-083", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "measles", "latin": "a cattle virus, deaths a year", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "deaths a year", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "2 600 000", "right": "110 000", "text": "when you were born there was no vaccine and measles killed about two and a half million children a year. now about a hundred thousand.", "note": "measles split from rinderpest, a cattle plague, around the sixth century BCE. we eradicated the cattle one. the human one is coming back where vaccination fell.", "source": "WHO; Düx et al. 2020, Science", "closer": "because we vaccinated. and rising where we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "2 600 000", "right": "110 000", "text": "about 3 million a year when you were born. about 110 000 now.", "note": "measles split from rinderpest, a cattle plague, around the sixth century BCE. we eradicated the cattle one. the human one is coming back where vaccination fell.", "source": "WHO; Düx et al. 2020, Science", "closer": "because we vaccinated. and rising where we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "1 100 000", "right": "110 000", "text": "about 1 million a year when you were born. about 110 000 now.", "note": "measles split from rinderpest, a cattle plague, around the sixth century BCE. we eradicated the cattle one. the human one is coming back where vaccination fell.", "source": "WHO; Düx et al. 2020, Science", "closer": "because we vaccinated. and rising where we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "140 000", "right": "110 000", "text": "about 140 000 a year when you were born. about 110 000 now.", "note": "measles split from rinderpest, a cattle plague, around the sixth century BCE. we eradicated the cattle one. the human one is coming back where vaccination fell.", "source": "WHO; Düx et al. 2020, Science", "closer": "because we vaccinated. and rising where we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "WHO measles deaths by year; pre-1980 estimates.", "range": "±30% on any year", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "pre-vaccine figures are estimates." }, { "id": "LGR-084", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "rinderpest", "latin": "the cattle plague, gone", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "rinderpest killed cattle by the hundred million for three thousand years. in the 1890s it killed nine in ten in parts of africa and the people starved after them. it has killed nothing since 2001. declared eradicated in 2011.", "note": "the second disease we ever finished, and the first that was not ours. measles is its child.", "source": "FAO / OIE 2011; Roeder et al. 2013", "closer": "because we vaccinated.", "regions": null } ], "method": "FAO/OIE eradication record.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none." }, { "id": "LGR-085", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "plague", "latin": "Yersinia pestis, still here", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "the black death killed a third to a half of europe in four years, 1347 to 1351. it came from rodents, by flea. it is still here: about one to two thousand cases a year, in madagascar, congo, peru, and a few in the american west, from prairie dogs and squirrels.", "note": "the disease never left the ground. what changed is a drug, streptomycin, 1947, and a ledger: every case is reported to the who within a day.", "source": "WHO; Bramanti et al. 2016", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "WHO reported cases; historical mortality from Bramanti et al. 2016.", "range": "1,000–3,000 cases/yr", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "reporting varies; Madagascar dominates." }, { "id": "LGR-086", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "tuberculosis", "latin": "the deadliest infection on earth, deaths a year", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "deaths a year", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "?", "right": "1 250 000", "text": "no ledger before 1990. in victorian europe it was one death in seven. it still kills over a million people a year.", "note": "it lives in cattle too. bovine tb crosses to people in raw milk. britain kills badgers and cattle by the tens of thousands a year to keep it out of the herd.", "source": "WHO Global TB Report; Roser & Ritchie", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "?", "right": "1 250 000", "text": "no ledger before 1990. in victorian europe it was one death in seven. it still kills over a million people a year.", "note": "it lives in cattle too. bovine tb crosses to people in raw milk. britain kills badgers and cattle by the tens of thousands a year to keep it out of the herd.", "source": "WHO Global TB Report; Roser & Ritchie", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "1 900 000", "right": "1 250 000", "text": "about 2 million a year when you were born. about 1 million now. it is still the deadliest infection on earth.", "note": "it lives in cattle too. bovine tb crosses to people in raw milk. britain kills badgers and cattle by the tens of thousands a year to keep it out of the herd.", "source": "WHO Global TB Report", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 400 000", "right": "1 250 000", "text": "about 1 million a year when you were born. about 1 million now. it is still the deadliest infection on earth.", "note": "it lives in cattle too. bovine tb crosses to people in raw milk. britain kills badgers and cattle by the tens of thousands a year to keep it out of the herd.", "source": "WHO Global TB Report", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "WHO Global TB Report deaths by year (HIV-negative and positive).", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "no global series before 1990." }, { "id": "LGR-087", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "where diseases come from", "latin": "the animal ledger, again", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "of the diseases we catch, about six in ten came from animals. of the new ones, three in four. measles from cattle. flu from birds and pigs. hiv from chimpanzees, by bushmeat. plague from rodents. covid, most likely, from a wildlife market. bird flu, now, from the sheds.", "note": "the way we keep animals is the way we make diseases. every channel on this site is one channel.", "source": "Taylor et al. 2001; Jones et al. 2008, Nature; Düx et al. 2020; Worobey et al. 2022", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Taylor et al. 2001 (61% zoonotic); Jones et al. 2008 (75% of emerging).", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "COVID origin stated as 'most likely' per Worobey et al. 2022; contested." }, { "id": "LGR-088", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "blue whales", "latin": "Balaenoptera musculus", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "47 777", "right": "15 000", "text": "about 69% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "about a quarter of a million before whaling. a few thousand by 1966. protected that year, everywhere.", "source": "IWC; IUCN 2018", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "5 000", "right": "15 000", "text": "about 3× as many as when you were born.", "note": "about a quarter of a million before whaling. a few thousand by 1966. protected that year, everywhere.", "source": "IWC; IUCN 2018", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "7 000", "right": "15 000", "text": "about 2.1× as many as when you were born.", "note": "about a quarter of a million before whaling. a few thousand by 1966. protected that year, everywhere.", "source": "IWC; IUCN 2018", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "10 000", "right": "15 000", "text": "about 1.5× as many as when you were born.", "note": "about a quarter of a million before whaling. a few thousand by 1966. protected that year, everywhere.", "source": "IWC; IUCN 2018", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "IWC/IUCN by decade, interpolated.", "range": "±40% on current global count", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "global count is poorly known; Antarctic population best studied." }, { "id": "LGR-089", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "tigers", "latin": "Panthera tigris", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "57 142", "right": "5 700", "text": "about 90% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "about a hundred thousand in 1900. the low was 2010. rising since, slowly, where the forest was left alone.", "source": "WWF; Global Tiger Forum 2023", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "40 000", "right": "5 700", "text": "about 86% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "about a hundred thousand in 1900. the low was 2010. rising since, slowly, where the forest was left alone.", "source": "WWF; Global Tiger Forum 2023", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "8 000", "right": "5 700", "text": "about 29% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "about a hundred thousand in 1900. the low was 2010. rising since, slowly, where the forest was left alone.", "source": "WWF; Global Tiger Forum 2023", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "3 200", "right": "5 700", "text": "about 1.8× as many as when you were born.", "note": "about a hundred thousand in 1900. the low was 2010. rising since, slowly, where the forest was left alone.", "source": "WWF; Global Tiger Forum 2023", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "WWF/Global Tiger Forum counts; 1900 estimate.", "range": "±15% now; ±50% in 1900", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "1900 figure is a widely repeated estimate, not a count." }, { "id": "LGR-090", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "black rhinos", "latin": "Diceros bicornis", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "100 000", "right": "6 500", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1960: about 100 000.", "note": "a hundred thousand in 1960. poached to 2,400 by 1995. climbing since. still poached.", "source": "IUCN African Rhino Specialist Group", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "65 000", "right": "6 500", "text": "about 90% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "a hundred thousand in 1960. poached to 2,400 by 1995. climbing since. still poached.", "source": "IUCN African Rhino Specialist Group", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "6 606", "right": "6 500", "text": "about as many as when you were born. holding.", "note": "a hundred thousand in 1960. poached to 2,400 by 1995. climbing since. still poached.", "source": "IUCN African Rhino Specialist Group", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "4 880", "right": "6 500", "text": "about 1.3× as many as when you were born.", "note": "a hundred thousand in 1960. poached to 2,400 by 1995. climbing since. still poached.", "source": "IUCN African Rhino Specialist Group", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "IUCN AfRSG.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-091", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "african elephants", "latin": "Loxodonta", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "3 489 795", "right": "415 000", "text": "about 88% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "ivory. then land: the farms took the corridors. the fall has slowed. it has not turned.", "source": "Great Elephant Census 2016; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "1 979 591", "right": "415 000", "text": "about 79% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "ivory. then land: the farms took the corridors. the fall has slowed. it has not turned.", "source": "Great Elephant Census 2016; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "594 444", "right": "415 000", "text": "about 30% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "ivory. then land: the farms took the corridors. the fall has slowed. it has not turned.", "source": "Great Elephant Census 2016; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "471 666", "right": "415 000", "text": "about 12% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "ivory. then land: the farms took the corridors. the fall has slowed. it has not turned.", "source": "Great Elephant Census 2016; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Great Elephant Census 2016; IUCN.", "range": "±15%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "forest elephants poorly counted." }, { "id": "LGR-092", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "giant pandas", "latin": "Ailuropoda melanoleuca", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "1 100", "right": "1 900", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1980: about 1 100.", "note": "the bamboo forest was left standing. that was most of it. off the endangered list in 2016.", "source": "China national surveys", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "1 100", "right": "1 900", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1980: about 1 100.", "note": "the bamboo forest was left standing. that was most of it. off the endangered list in 2016.", "source": "China national surveys", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "1 306", "right": "1 900", "text": "about 1.5× as many as when you were born.", "note": "the bamboo forest was left standing. that was most of it. off the endangered list in 2016.", "source": "China national surveys", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "1 756", "right": "1 900", "text": "about 1.1× as many as when you were born.", "note": "the bamboo forest was left standing. that was most of it. off the endangered list in 2016.", "source": "China national surveys", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "China national surveys.", "range": "±10%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "survey intervals of a decade." }, { "id": "LGR-093", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "mountain gorillas", "latin": "Gorilla beringei beringei", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "254", "right": "1 100", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1981: about 254.", "note": "254 in 1981. over a thousand now. the only great ape whose numbers are rising.", "source": "IUCN 2018; Dian Fossey Fund", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "254", "right": "1 100", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1981: about 254.", "note": "254 in 1981. over a thousand now. the only great ape whose numbers are rising.", "source": "IUCN 2018; Dian Fossey Fund", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "305", "right": "1 100", "text": "about 4× as many as when you were born.", "note": "254 in 1981. over a thousand now. the only great ape whose numbers are rising.", "source": "IUCN 2018; Dian Fossey Fund", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "480", "right": "1 100", "text": "about 2.3× as many as when you were born.", "note": "254 in 1981. over a thousand now. the only great ape whose numbers are rising.", "source": "IUCN 2018; Dian Fossey Fund", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "IUCN; Dian Fossey Fund census.", "range": "±5%", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-094", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "kakapo", "latin": "Strigops habroptilus", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "51", "right": "247", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1995: about 51.", "note": "51 birds in 1995. every one has a name and a transmitter. it is the most watched species on earth.", "source": "NZ Department of Conservation", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "51", "right": "247", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1995: about 51.", "note": "51 birds in 1995. every one has a name and a transmitter. it is the most watched species on earth.", "source": "NZ Department of Conservation", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "51", "right": "247", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1995: about 51.", "note": "51 birds in 1995. every one has a name and a transmitter. it is the most watched species on earth.", "source": "NZ Department of Conservation", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "132", "right": "247", "text": "about 1.9× as many as when you were born.", "note": "51 birds in 1995. every one has a name and a transmitter. it is the most watched species on earth.", "source": "NZ Department of Conservation", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "NZ DOC; every bird known.", "range": "exact", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none." }, { "id": "LGR-095", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "vaquita", "latin": "Phocoena sinus", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "567", "right": "8", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1997: about 567.", "note": "drowned in gillnets set for a fish whose swim bladder sells as medicine. fewer than ten left. it is on the food ledger too.", "source": "CIRVA; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "567", "right": "8", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1997: about 567.", "note": "drowned in gillnets set for a fish whose swim bladder sells as medicine. fewer than ten left. it is on the food ledger too.", "source": "CIRVA; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "567", "right": "8", "text": "no count from the year you were born. the first is 1997: about 567.", "note": "drowned in gillnets set for a fish whose swim bladder sells as medicine. fewer than ten left. it is on the food ledger too.", "source": "CIRVA; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "192", "right": "8", "text": "about 96% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "drowned in gillnets set for a fish whose swim bladder sells as medicine. fewer than ten left. it is on the food ledger too.", "source": "CIRVA; IUCN", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "CIRVA/IUCN acoustic and visual surveys.", "range": "6–12 in recent years", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "none material; the number is small and the range is honest." }, { "id": "LGR-096", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "your share", "latin": "if you eat meat, and roughly like the world average", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "53 200", "right": "2.4", "text": "you have consumed a piece of at least 53 200 different living things: one for every meal with an animal in it, and probably many more, because a burger holds beef from dozens of cattle and no one can count that. about 1.9 tonnes of meat and 0.5 tonnes of fish have passed through your body.", "note": "to feed you, on the world-average share, about 449 land animals and 21 964 sea animals were killed outright; eggs and dairy add about 82. one cow feeds a thousand meals, and you ate from a thousand cows. both counts are true. a us or australian eater: about three times the mass. once you tell the site your country it stops averaging you.", "source": "meals: two of three with an animal in them; FAO food supply per capita by year (edible share); fishcount.org.uk; pooled-meat traceback studies", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "39 200", "right": "1.9", "text": "you have consumed a piece of at least 39 200 different living things: one for every meal with an animal in it, and probably many more, because a burger holds beef from dozens of cattle and no one can count that. about 1.5 tonnes of meat and 0.4 tonnes of fish have passed through your body.", "note": "to feed you, on the world-average share, about 395 land animals and 16 895 sea animals were killed outright; eggs and dairy add about 62. one cow feeds a thousand meals, and you ate from a thousand cows. both counts are true. a us or australian eater: about three times the mass. once you tell the site your country it stops averaging you.", "source": "meals: two of three with an animal in them; FAO food supply per capita by year (edible share); fishcount.org.uk; pooled-meat traceback studies", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "25 200", "right": "1.4", "text": "you have consumed a piece of at least 25 200 different living things: one for every meal with an animal in it, and probably many more, because a burger holds beef from dozens of cattle and no one can count that. about 1.0 tonnes of meat and 0.3 tonnes of fish have passed through your body.", "note": "to feed you, on the world-average share, about 307 land animals and 11 240 sea animals were killed outright; eggs and dairy add about 41. one cow feeds a thousand meals, and you ate from a thousand cows. both counts are true. a us or australian eater: about three times the mass. once you tell the site your country it stops averaging you.", "source": "meals: two of three with an animal in them; FAO food supply per capita by year (edible share); fishcount.org.uk; pooled-meat traceback studies", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "11 200", "right": "0.7", "text": "you have consumed a piece of at least 11 200 different living things: one for every meal with an animal in it, and probably many more, because a burger holds beef from dozens of cattle and no one can count that. about 0.5 tonnes of meat and 0.2 tonnes of fish have passed through your body.", "note": "to feed you, on the world-average share, about 159 land animals and 5 040 sea animals were killed outright; eggs and dairy add about 18. one cow feeds a thousand meals, and you ate from a thousand cows. both counts are true. a us or australian eater: about three times the mass. once you tell the site your country it stops averaging you.", "source": "meals: two of three with an animal in them; FAO food supply per capita by year (edible share); fishcount.org.uk; pooled-meat traceback studies", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "meals: two of three with an animal in them (700/yr) as a floor for distinct animals consumed; mass from FAO food supply per capita by year × edible share; killed-outright from per-capita slaughter and catch by year.", "range": "meals ±30%; mass ±20%; sea count 1–2.2 trillion/yr basis", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "the distinct-animals count is a floor by construction; the true number is unknowable because meat is pooled. world average until a country is set." }, { "id": "LGR-097", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "shelters", "latin": "dogs and cats killed in shelters · united states", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "a year", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "13 500 000", "right": "700 000", "text": "thirteen to twenty million a year in the 1970s. under a million now.", "note": "spay and neuter did most of it. the rest was rooms, and people. still: under a million a year, healthy, because nobody came.", "source": "HSUS; ASPCA; Shelter Animals Count", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "13 500 000", "right": "700 000", "text": "about 95% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "spay and neuter did most of it. the rest was rooms, and people. still: under a million a year, healthy, because nobody came.", "source": "HSUS; ASPCA; Shelter Animals Count", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "7 916 666", "right": "700 000", "text": "about 91% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "spay and neuter did most of it. the rest was rooms, and people. still: under a million a year, healthy, because nobody came.", "source": "HSUS; ASPCA; Shelter Animals Count", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "2 771 428", "right": "700 000", "text": "about 75% fewer than when you were born.", "note": "spay and neuter did most of it. the rest was rooms, and people. still: under a million a year, healthy, because nobody came.", "source": "HSUS; ASPCA; Shelter Animals Count", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "HSUS/ASPCA/Shelter Animals Count decade anchors, interpolated.", "range": "±30% on early decades", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "1970s figures are ranges (13–20 million); the site uses the low end." }, { "id": "LGR-098", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "lions and tigers", "latin": "more in cages than in the wild", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "there are more tigers in cages than in the wild: about 5,500 wild; over 5,000 in the united states alone, thousands more on chinese farms. in south africa about 8,000 lions live on breeding farms, more than twice the country’s wild lions.", "note": "lions are bred for the bullet: petted as cubs, shot as adults, boiled for bone. tigers are bred to be looked at, and in some countries boiled. neither is bred to be wild.", "source": "WWF; Born Free; Four Paws; EMS Foundation; Nowell 2007", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "WWF wild tiger estimate; US captive tiger estimates (Nowell 2007, later NGO counts); Born Free / EMS Foundation for south african captive lions.", "range": "US captive tigers 5,000–10,000; SA captive lions 8,000–12,000", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "captive counts are NGO estimates; no registry exists in the US." }, { "id": "LGR-099", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "vultures", "latin": "a cattle painkiller, a dog, a virus, a person", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "india lost about 97 to 99% of its vultures in ten years to diclofenac, a painkiller given to cattle. carcasses lay uneaten. feral dogs multiplied on them. rabies followed. one estimate: about half a million extra human deaths in five years.", "note": "diclofenac was banned for cattle in 2006. the vultures are coming back, slowly. every channel on this site is one channel.", "source": "Frank & Sudarshan 2024, American Economic Review; Green et al. 2004; SAVE", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Frank & Sudarshan 2024 (AER) mortality estimate; Green et al. 2004 for the diclofenac mechanism.", "range": "human deaths 400,000–600,000 over 2000–2005", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a difference-in-differences estimate; causal, contested at the margins, large in any version." }, { "id": "LGR-100", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "sparrows", "latin": "china, 1958", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "china ordered its sparrows killed for eating grain. hundreds of millions were. the locusts the sparrows had eaten came instead. the famine that followed killed tens of millions of people, of many causes, this among them.", "note": "the four pests campaign. the sparrow was replaced on the list by the bedbug in 1960.", "source": "Shapiro 2001; Dikötter 2010", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "historical: Shapiro 2001; Dikötter 2010.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the famine had many causes; the site says so." }, { "id": "LGR-101", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "passenger pigeons", "latin": "Ectopistes migratorius", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "three to five billion. the most numerous bird on earth. flocks a mile wide that took hours to pass. shot, netted and shipped by the barrel. the last one, martha, died in cincinnati zoo on the first of september, 1914.", "note": "from the most numerous bird on earth to none in about fifty years. nobody thought it was possible until it was done.", "source": "Schorger 1955; Smithsonian", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Schorger 1955; Smithsonian.", "range": "3–5 billion pre-decline", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-102", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "american bison", "latin": "Bison bison", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "individuals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "25 000", "right": "500 000", "text": "about 20× as many as when you were born. from tens of millions to 325 in 1884.", "note": "half a million now, and most of them are on ranches, for meat. about 30,000 are wild. saved by being farmed. that is either a rescue or a joke, and the ledger cannot tell you which.", "source": "Hornaday 1889; National Park Service; USDA census", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "30 000", "right": "500 000", "text": "about 16.7× as many as when you were born. from tens of millions to 325 in 1884.", "note": "half a million now, and most of them are on ranches, for meat. about 30,000 are wild. saved by being farmed. that is either a rescue or a joke, and the ledger cannot tell you which.", "source": "Hornaday 1889; National Park Service; USDA census", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "243 333", "right": "500 000", "text": "about 2.1× as many as when you were born. from tens of millions to 325 in 1884.", "note": "half a million now, and most of them are on ranches, for meat. about 30,000 are wild. saved by being farmed. that is either a rescue or a joke, and the ledger cannot tell you which.", "source": "Hornaday 1889; National Park Service; USDA census", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "425 000", "right": "500 000", "text": "about 1.2× as many as when you were born. from tens of millions to 325 in 1884.", "note": "half a million now, and most of them are on ranches, for meat. about 30,000 are wild. saved by being farmed. that is either a rescue or a joke, and the ledger cannot tell you which.", "source": "Hornaday 1889; National Park Service; USDA census", "closer": "because we stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Hornaday 1889 (325 in 1884); NPS and USDA census for later years, interpolated.", "range": "±20% on early anchors", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "'wild' vs 'ranched' is stated on screen; most of the recovery is ranched." }, { "id": "LGR-103", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "whale oil", "latin": "what saved them the first time", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "petroleum saved the whales the first time. kerosene undercut whale oil for lamps in the 1860s and the yankee fleet went home. then diesel ships and the exploding harpoon nearly finished them a century later.", "note": "the same fuel, twice, in opposite directions. the ledger does not have heroes.", "source": "Starbuck 1878; Tønnessen & Johnsen 1982", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "historical: Starbuck 1878; Tønnessen & Johnsen 1982.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-104", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "ivory and plastic", "latin": "billiard balls", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "billiard balls needed ivory. a $10,000 prize for a substitute produced celluloid in 1869, the first plastic. plastic was invented to save elephants. it now weighs about twice as much as every animal on earth combined.", "note": "and elephants are still poached for ivory, about fifteen to twenty thousand a year.", "source": "Meikle 1995; Elhacham et al. 2020, Nature; Geyer et al. 2017; CITES MIKE", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Meikle 1995 (celluloid); Elhacham et al. 2020 (anthropogenic mass vs biomass); Geyer et al. 2017; CITES MIKE for poaching.", "range": "plastic ~8 Gt cumulative vs animal biomass ~4 Gt wet", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the 'twice' compares cumulative plastic ever made with living animal mass; both are estimates." }, { "id": "LGR-105", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the red in your yoghurt", "latin": "cochineal and lac", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "the red in strawberry yoghurt, lipstick and campari was, until recently, crushed beetles: about 70,000 cochineal insects for a pound of dye. the shine on apples and jelly beans is shellac, from the lac bug.", "note": "carmine is still legal and still used. it is listed as e120. it does not say bug.", "source": "FDA 21 CFR 73.100; Reisenman 2015", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "FDA regulations on carmine; Reisenman 2015 on cochineal yield.", "range": "70,000 insects per pound is the standard figure", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "many brands have switched to plant reds; 'until recently' is doing work." }, { "id": "LGR-106", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "almonds", "latin": "two million hives on flatbeds", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "every february about two million beehives are trucked to california to pollinate almonds: most of the honeybees in the united states, on the interstate. beekeepers lose about 40% of their colonies a year and rebuild them by splitting.", "note": "a third of what you eat, by variety, depends on a pollinator. most of them are not honeybees, and nobody trucks the wild ones anywhere.", "source": "USDA NASS; Bee Informed Partnership; Klein et al. 2007", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "USDA NASS pollination data; Bee Informed Partnership annual loss survey; Klein et al. 2007.", "range": "1.8–2.5 million hives; 30–48% annual loss", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "'a third of what you eat' is by crop variety, not calories, and the site says so." }, { "id": "LGR-107", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "cod", "latin": "newfoundland, 1992", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "newfoundland’s cod were fished for five hundred years. they collapsed in 1992. thirty thousand people lost their work in a day. the moratorium is still mostly in force. the cod are still mostly not back.", "note": "stopping too late is a different thing from stopping.", "source": "Hutchings & Myers 1994; DFO Canada", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Hutchings & Myers 1994; DFO Canada.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "a limited fishery reopened in 2024; 'mostly' carries that." }, { "id": "LGR-108", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "lake victoria", "latin": "the nile perch", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "the nile perch was put into lake victoria in the 1950s to improve the fishing. it ate about 200 species of fish that lived nowhere else. the perch is filleted for europe. the frames are dried and sold to the people who caught them.", "note": "the largest extinction of vertebrates in modern times, and it was done on purpose, to help.", "source": "Witte et al. 1992; Pringle 2005", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Witte et al. 1992; Pringle 2005.", "range": "~200 endemic cichlids lost or presumed", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "some species survive in refugia; counts vary." }, { "id": "LGR-109", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "bear bile", "latin": "about 12,000 bears", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "about 12,000 bears live in cages in china and vietnam with a tube or an open wound in the gallbladder, milked for bile. the active ingredient, ursodeoxycholic acid, has been made in a laboratory since 1954 and is in every pharmacy.", "note": "vietnam agreed to close its farms in 2017. china has not.", "source": "Animals Asia; Feng et al. 2009", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Animals Asia; Feng et al. 2009.", "range": "10,000–12,000 bears", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "no registry; NGO counts." }, { "id": "LGR-110", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you stopped eating meat", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.8", "right": "800 000", "text": "about 0.8 tonnes of co2e. about 10 land animals and 300 from the sea. about 0.4 hectares of land and 600,000 litres of water. a year, at the world average; a us or australian eater, about double.", "note": "for scale: about 100% of a year without meat. this is the yardstick. every other screen in this set is measured against it.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017; Poore & Nemecek 2018; Vanham et al. 2013", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017; Poore & Nemecek 2018; Vanham et al. 2013), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-111", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you ate half as much meat", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.4", "right": "400 000", "text": "about 0.4 tonnes of co2e, 5 land animals and 150 from the sea, a year.", "note": "for scale: about 50% of a year without meat. half the meat is half the ledger. it is also the change most people actually make.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Poore & Nemecek 2018), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-112", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you skipped meat one day a week", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.11", "right": "110 000", "text": "about 0.11 tonnes of co2e, 1.5 land animals and 45 from the sea, a year. a seventh of the yardstick.", "note": "for scale: about 14% of a year without meat. small and real. mostly it teaches you the other six days are a choice too.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-113", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you gave up beef and lamb only", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.5", "right": "500 000", "text": "about 0.5 tonnes of co2e and a quarter of a hectare of land, a year. and a small fraction of one cow.", "note": "for scale: about 60% of a year without meat. beef is most of the carbon and almost none of the animals. chicken is the reverse. the ledger counts both.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Poore & Nemecek 2018), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-114", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you swapped beef for chicken", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e less", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.4", "right": "400 000", "text": "about 0.4 tonnes less co2e a year. and about 20 more animals killed. one cow feeds a thousand meals; a chicken feeds six.", "note": "for scale: about 50% of a year without meat. the ledger counts both. choose your unit.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018; FAO", "closer": "if you swapped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Poore & Nemecek 2018; FAO), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-115", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you gave up dairy", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.3", "right": "300 000", "text": "about 0.3 tonnes of co2e a year, about 100,000 litres of water, and a share of a bobby calf: a dairy farm’s male calf, killed young because he cannot make milk. see: bobby calves.", "note": "for scale: about 35% of a year without meat. the calves are the part nobody sees. a cow must calve to give milk; half the calves are sons; the sons go.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018; Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2012", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Poore & Nemecek 2018; Mekonnen & Hoekstra 2012), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-116", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you gave up shrimp", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "sea animals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "55", "right": "55 million", "text": "about 55 animals a year at the world average, and closer to 150 for an american.", "note": "for scale: about 18% of a year without meat. one shrimp cocktail is more lives than a year of beef.", "source": "fishcount.org.uk; NOAA per-capita consumption", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (fishcount.org.uk; NOAA per-capita consumption), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-117", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you wasted no food", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.3", "right": "300 000", "text": "about 0.3 tonnes of co2e and about 74 kilograms of food a year. a third of all food is wasted. if food waste were a country it would be the third emitter.", "note": "for scale: about 37% of a year without meat. the animals in the wasted meat died for nothing at all, and the ledger already counted them.", "source": "UNEP Food Waste Index 2021; FAO 2013", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (UNEP Food Waste Index 2021; FAO 2013), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-118", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you took one fewer long-haul flight a year", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "1.6", "right": "2 million", "text": "about 1.6 tonnes of co2e. one return flight. twice a year without meat.", "note": "for scale: about 200% of a year without meat. the largest single thing on this list that most people can do in an afternoon: not book it.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-119", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you flew economy instead of business", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "1.1", "right": "1 million", "text": "a business seat is about three times an economy seat, by space. on a long-haul return that is about 1.1 tonnes of co2e saved.", "note": "for scale: about 140% of a year without meat. the plane is going anyway. the seat is the share you buy.", "source": "ICAO carbon calculator; DEFRA factors", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (ICAO carbon calculator; DEFRA factors), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-120", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you put solar on your roof", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "2.4", "right": "2 million", "text": "a typical home system, about five kilowatts, makes about 6,000 kilowatt-hours a year: about 2.4 tonnes of co2e on an average grid. the same as living without a car.", "note": "for scale: about 300% of a year without meat. on a coal grid, double that. on a hydro grid, almost nothing. it repays the carbon it took to make in one to two years and runs for thirty. see: the cost of a panel.", "source": "NREL PVWatts; IEA grid factors; Fraunhofer ISE 2024", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (NREL PVWatts; IEA grid factors; Fraunhofer ISE 2024), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-121", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you lived without a car", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "2.4", "right": "2 million", "text": "about 2.4 tonnes of co2e a year. three years without meat.", "note": "for scale: about 300% of a year without meat. the biggest thing on this list. it depends entirely on where you live, and that is not your fault.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-122", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you drove ten kilometres less a week", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.1", "right": "100 000", "text": "about 0.1 tonnes of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 12% of a year without meat. a walk. a bus. a call instead.", "source": "DEFRA factors", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (DEFRA factors), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-123", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you switched to a real renewable electricity tariff", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "1.5", "right": "2 million", "text": "about 1.5 tonnes of co2e a year, on an average grid. if the tariff is real.", "note": "for scale: about 190% of a year without meat. some tariffs buy certificates and change nothing. ask what they build.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017; UK BEIS", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017; UK BEIS), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-124", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you insulated, or put in a heat pump", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "2", "right": "2 million", "text": "one to three tonnes of co2e a year, for a house heated with gas or oil.", "note": "for scale: about 250% of a year without meat. the biggest thing most people can do to a building. it costs money once and pays for years.", "source": "IEA; UK Energy Saving Trust", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (IEA; UK Energy Saving Trust), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-125", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you turned the thermostat down one degree", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.1", "right": "100 000", "text": "about 0.1 tonnes of co2e a year, per person, in a heated house.", "note": "for scale: about 12% of a year without meat. wear a sweater instead.", "source": "UK Energy Saving Trust", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (UK Energy Saving Trust), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-126", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you hung the washing instead of using a dryer", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.07", "right": "70 000", "text": "about 70 kilograms of co2e a year, per person.", "note": "for scale: about 9% of a year without meat. the dryer is the second-hungriest thing in the house after heating.", "source": "US DOE; Energy Star", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (US DOE; Energy Star), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-127", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you washed clothes cold", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.03", "right": "30 000", "text": "about 30 kilograms of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 4% of a year without meat. ninety percent of the energy of a wash is heating the water. the clothes do not know.", "source": "US DOE", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (US DOE), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-128", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you washed your hair one time fewer a week", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "litres of water", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "2 000", "right": "2 billion", "text": "about 2,000 litres of water and about 25 kilograms of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 3% of a year without meat. the water is heated. that is where the carbon is.", "source": "EPA WaterSense; DEFRA factors", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (EPA WaterSense; DEFRA factors), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-129", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you took showers a minute shorter", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "litres of water", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "3 300", "right": "3.3 billion", "text": "about 3,300 litres of water and about 22 kilograms of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 3% of a year without meat. small. free. and in a dry place the water is the number that matters, not the carbon.", "source": "EPA WaterSense", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (EPA WaterSense), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-130", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you turned the tap off while brushing", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "litres of water", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "8 700", "right": "8.7 billion", "text": "about 8,700 litres of water a year. almost no carbon: it is cold water.", "note": "for scale: about 0% of a year without meat on carbon. water, not carbon. this list has two currencies and this one is only in one of them.", "source": "EPA WaterSense", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (EPA WaterSense), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-131", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you shook your hands dry instead of a paper towel", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "16", "right": "16 million", "text": "about 2,000 towels and about 16 kilograms of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 2% of a year without meat. small. true. do it anyway; it is free, and it costs nothing to be honest about the size.", "source": "Gregory et al. 2011, MIT", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Gregory et al. 2011, MIT), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-132", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you used a refillable bottle", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "15", "right": "15 million", "text": "about 150 bottles, 3 kilograms of plastic and about 15 kilograms of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 2% of a year without meat. the bottle is not the problem; it is one of the smaller ones. it is also the easiest.", "source": "Franklin Associates; DEFRA", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Franklin Associates; DEFRA), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-133", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you kept your phone one more year", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "30", "right": "30 million", "text": "about 30 kilograms of co2e a year, and about sixty elements left in the ground.", "note": "for scale: about 4% of a year without meat. most of a phone’s footprint is making it, not using it. see: mines.", "source": "Apple / Fairphone LCAs; USGS", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Apple / Fairphone LCAs; USGS), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-134", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you bought no new clothes for a year", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "250", "right": "250 million", "text": "about 250 kilograms of co2e, and about 2,700 litres of water for every cotton t-shirt not bought.", "note": "for scale: about 30% of a year without meat. the average garment is worn about seven times. second-hand counts as zero here.", "source": "Quantis 2018; WRAP; WWF", "closer": "if you stopped.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Quantis 2018; WRAP; WWF), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-135", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you used a cotton tote instead of plastic bags", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0", "right": "0", "text": "a cotton bag has to be used about 7,000 times to beat a plastic bag on climate. organic cotton, about 20,000.", "note": "for scale: about 0% of a year without meat on carbon. use the bag you already own until it falls apart, whatever it is made of. that is the whole trick.", "source": "Danish EPA 2018", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Danish EPA 2018), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-136", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you ran the dishwasher full instead of washing by hand", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "litres of water", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "20 000", "right": "20 billion", "text": "about 20,000 litres of water a year. a full machine uses about twelve litres; hands use sixty or more.", "note": "for scale: about 2% of a year without meat. run the machine. full. this is one of the few places where the lazier thing is the better one.", "source": "Energy Star; Stamminger 2004", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Energy Star; Stamminger 2004), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-137", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you recycled everything", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.2", "right": "200 000", "text": "about 0.2 tonnes of co2e a year.", "note": "for scale: about 26% of a year without meat. useful. less than the packaging suggests, and a quarter of a year without meat.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-138", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you ate local", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "tonnes co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "0.05", "right": "50 000", "text": "about 0.05 tonnes of co2e a year. transport is about five percent of food’s footprint.", "note": "for scale: about 6% of a year without meat. what you eat matters about ten times more than where it came from. local beef is beef.", "source": "Poore & Nemecek 2018", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Poore & Nemecek 2018), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-139", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you planted a tree", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2 a year, once grown", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "20", "right": "20 million", "text": "about 20 kilograms of co2 a year, for decades, once it is grown. about a week of driving.", "note": "for scale: about 3% of a year without meat. plant it anyway. plant many. do not plant it instead of the flight.", "source": "US Forest Service; Bastin et al. 2019 (and its critics)", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (US Forest Service; Bastin et al. 2019 (and its critics)), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-140", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you composted", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "50", "right": "50 million", "text": "about 50 kilograms of co2e a year: food in landfill makes methane, food in a heap makes soil.", "note": "for scale: about 6% of a year without meat. see: soil.", "source": "US EPA WARM", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (US EPA WARM), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-141", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you switched the bulbs to led", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "kilograms co2e", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "50", "right": "50 million", "text": "about 50 kilograms of co2e a year, per person, in a house that had not already.", "note": "for scale: about 6% of a year without meat. nearly everyone already has. the easy ones get done first.", "source": "US DOE", "closer": "if you did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (US DOE), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-142", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "if you kept your cat indoors", "latin": "one person, one year · world average · order of magnitude", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "birds and small mammals", "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "40", "right": "40 million", "text": "on the order of dozens of birds and small mammals a year, per cat. not on the carbon ledger at all.", "note": "for scale: about 0% of a year without meat on carbon. see: what cats kill. the cat is fine indoors. the birds are fine outdoors.", "source": "Loss et al. 2013; Kays et al. 2020", "closer": "if you kept.", "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Loss et al. 2013; Kays et al. 2020), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-143", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "what one person can do, ranked", "latin": "tonnes of co2e a year, world average", "kind": "still", "action": true, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "car-free 2.4 · solar on the roof 2.4 · insulate or heat pump 2 · one fewer long flight 1.6 · a real green tariff 1.5 · no meat 0.8 · no beef 0.5 · half the meat 0.4 · no food waste 0.3 · no dairy 0.3 · no new clothes 0.25 · recycle everything 0.2 · thermostat down 0.1 · hang the washing 0.07 · eat local 0.05 · compost 0.05 · led bulbs 0.05 · cold wash 0.03 · keep the phone 0.03 · hair, showers, towels, bottles, taps 0.02 and under.", "note": "the top six are worth more than everything below them combined. the animals are a different ledger: no meat and no shrimp are the whole of it. the ledger does not tell you what to do. it tells you what it is worth.", "source": "Wynes & Nicholas 2017; Poore & Nemecek 2018; the sources on each screen", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "per-person, per-year estimate from the cited study (Wynes & Nicholas 2017; Poore & Nemecek 2018; the sources on each screen), world-average where the study allows; the million-people column is straight multiplication. 'for scale' divides by 0.8 t CO2e, the meat-free yardstick.", "range": "roughly ±50%: households, grids and countries differ widely", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "a world-average person. your number depends on where you live and how you already live; the country layer will narrow it. the ranking between actions is far more robust than any single figure." }, { "id": "LGR-144", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "every roof", "latin": "if every suitable roof on earth had panels", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": true, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "every suitable roof on earth would generate about 27,000 terawatt-hours a year: about as much electricity as the world uses. not every hour. the sun sets. that is the storage problem, and it is the whole problem.", "note": "france made it law in 2023: any car park with more than eighty spaces gets a solar roof. the united states could make about two fifths of its electricity from roofs alone. no new land, no new holes.", "source": "Joshi et al. 2021, Nature Communications; NREL 2016; France loi APER 2023", "closer": "if we did.", "regions": null } ], "method": "Joshi et al. 2021: global rooftop PV technical potential ~27 PWh/yr; NREL 2016 for the US share.", "range": "technical potential 20–30 PWh/yr; economic potential lower", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "technical potential is not deliverable electricity: night, seasons and storage are the gap, and the screen says so." }, { "id": "LGR-145", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the cost of a panel", "latin": "what it takes, what it gives", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "20–50", "right": "820", "text": "a solar panel emits about 20 to 50 grams of co2 for every kilowatt-hour it will ever make, almost all of it before it is switched on. coal makes the same kilowatt-hour for about 820, gas for about 490. the panel repays its own energy in one to two years and runs for thirty.", "note": "not zero, and the ledger will not pretend. about 78 million tonnes of dead panels by 2050, and a supply chain that runs through xinjiang. it still wins by a factor of ten to forty. both halves are true.", "source": "IPCC AR5 Annex III; NREL harmonization; Fraunhofer ISE 2024; IRENA 2016 (waste); Sheffield Hallam 2021 (supply chain)", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "lifecycle CO2 per kWh from IPCC AR5 harmonized medians (PV ~48, falling toward ~20 in recent studies; coal 820; gas 490); energy payback from Fraunhofer ISE.", "range": "PV 15–60 gCO2/kWh depending on grid of manufacture and irradiance", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "lifecycle numbers depend on where the panel is made and where it is used; the ratio to coal is robust, the exact grams are not." }, { "id": "LGR-146", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "the deadliest animals", "latin": "people killed a year, by animal", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "mosquito 700,000 · human 460,000 · snake 100,000 · dog 59,000 · sandfly 25,000 · freshwater snail 12,000 · assassin bug 10,000 · scorpion 3,000 · crocodile 1,000 · hippo 500 · elephant 500 · lion 200 · wolf 10 · shark 10.", "note": "the mosquito does it with a parasite and a virus. we do it with our hands. everything below the human is a rounding error next to the top two.", "source": "WHO; GBD 2019; UNODC; ISAF; CrocBITE", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "as the animals channel; the human figure is UNODC homicide.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the small counts (wolf, shark, lion) vary year to year by a factor of two." }, { "id": "LGR-147", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "modern slavery", "latin": "about 50 million people, today", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "about 50 million people are in slavery today: 28 million in forced labour, 22 million in forced marriage. more than at any point in history, by count.", "note": "some of them are on the boats. forced labour in fishing is documented in the fleets that supply the fish channel. some of them picked the cotton. the ledger connects.", "source": "ILO / Walk Free / IOM Global Estimates 2022; EJF; Human Rights Watch", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "ILO / Walk Free / IOM Global Estimates of Modern Slavery 2022.", "range": "45–55 million", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "survey-based estimates in a hidden population; the direction is not in doubt." }, { "id": "LGR-148", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "bobby calves", "latin": "what a bobby is, and what happens to the sons", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "a bobby calf is a dairy farm’s male calf, a few days old. a cow only gives milk after she has calved, so a dairy herd makes about a calf per cow per year, and half of them are sons: on the order of a hundred million male dairy calves a year, worldwide. none can make milk. dairy breeds grow too slowly for good beef. so almost all are killed young.", "note": "in new zealand and australia, most within days: a few million bobby calves a year. in britain, tens of thousands a year were shot on the farm at birth until the industry stopped routine on-farm killing in 2023. in europe and north america, most go to veal at a few months, or to “dairy beef” within a year or two. a cow can live twenty years. her sons rarely see one. milk has a body count; it is just not the animal you are drinking from.", "source": "FAO dairy herd statistics; MPI New Zealand; Dairy Australia; AHDB / Red Tractor 2023; USDA NASS", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "FAO dairy cow numbers (~270 million) × calving rate (~0.85) × half male; national figures from MPI NZ, Dairy Australia, AHDB.", "range": "90–130 million male dairy calves/yr", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "the fate split (days / veal / dairy-beef) varies by country and is stated as such; 'almost all killed young' is true everywhere, the age is not." }, { "id": "LGR-149", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "someone born in 1955", "latin": "an average life so far, at the world average · if they eat meat", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "49 700", "right": "2.3", "text": "someone born in 1955 is about 71. if they eat meat, roughly like the world average, they have consumed a piece of at least 49 700 different living things, and about 1.8 tonnes of meat and 0.5 tonnes of fish have passed through them.", "note": "to feed them, about 436 land animals and 20 714 sea animals were killed outright, and eggs and dairy add about 77. a us or australian eater of the same age: two to three times the animals, three times the mass. type your own year, top right, and the site stops averaging you.", "source": "FAO slaughter, catch and food supply per capita, by year; fishcount.org.uk; meals: two of three with an animal in them", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "as 'your share', for a fixed birth year: world-average per-capita slaughter, catch and food supply integrated from that year to now.", "range": "meals ±30%; mass ±20%; sea count on a 1–2.2 trillion/yr basis", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "a world-average person of that age; nobody is average. the point is the size, not the decimals." }, { "id": "LGR-150", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "someone born in 1972", "latin": "an average life so far, at the world average · if they eat meat", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "37 800", "right": "1.9", "text": "someone born in 1972 is about 54. if they eat meat, roughly like the world average, they have consumed a piece of at least 37 800 different living things, and about 1.5 tonnes of meat and 0.4 tonnes of fish have passed through them.", "note": "to feed them, about 388 land animals and 16 360 sea animals were killed outright, and eggs and dairy add about 60. a us or australian eater of the same age: two to three times the animals, three times the mass. type your own year, top right, and the site stops averaging you.", "source": "FAO slaughter, catch and food supply per capita, by year; fishcount.org.uk; meals: two of three with an animal in them", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "as 'someone born in 1955'.", "range": "as above", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "as above." }, { "id": "LGR-151", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "someone born in 1988", "latin": "an average life so far, at the world average · if they eat meat", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "26 600", "right": "1.4", "text": "someone born in 1988 is about 38. if they eat meat, roughly like the world average, they have consumed a piece of at least 26 600 different living things, and about 1.1 tonnes of meat and 0.3 tonnes of fish have passed through them.", "note": "to feed them, about 318 land animals and 11 836 sea animals were killed outright, and eggs and dairy add about 43. a us or australian eater of the same age: two to three times the animals, three times the mass. type your own year, top right, and the site stops averaging you.", "source": "FAO slaughter, catch and food supply per capita, by year; fishcount.org.uk; meals: two of three with an animal in them", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "as 'someone born in 1955'.", "range": "as above", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "as above." }, { "id": "LGR-152", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "someone born in 2004", "latin": "an average life so far, at the world average · if they eat meat", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": "15 400", "right": "0.9", "text": "someone born in 2004 is about 22. if they eat meat, roughly like the world average, they have consumed a piece of at least 15 400 different living things, and about 0.7 tonnes of meat and 0.2 tonnes of fish have passed through them.", "note": "to feed them, about 210 land animals and 6 942 sea animals were killed outright, and eggs and dairy add about 25. a us or australian eater of the same age: two to three times the animals, three times the mass. type your own year, top right, and the site stops averaging you.", "source": "FAO slaughter, catch and food supply per capita, by year; fishcount.org.uk; meals: two of three with an animal in them", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "as 'someone born in 1955'.", "range": "as above", "confidence": "model", "weakness": "as above." }, { "id": "LGR-153", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "wild animals", "latin": "average change in monitored populations", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": true, "no_ledger_columns": false, "unit": "index, 1970 = 100", "examples": [ { "birth_year": 1950, "left": "100", "right": "23", "text": "wild vertebrate populations are on average about 77% smaller than in 1970. before that, nobody was keeping the index.", "note": "an average of population trends, not a count of animals. habitat loss to farming is the largest driver on land; fishing at sea.", "source": "WWF Living Planet Index 2024; IPBES 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1970, "left": "100", "right": "23", "text": "wild vertebrate populations are on average about 77% smaller than when you were born.", "note": "an average of population trends, not a count of animals. habitat loss to farming is the largest driver on land; fishing at sea.", "source": "WWF Living Planet Index 2024; IPBES 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 1990, "left": "59", "right": "23", "text": "wild vertebrate populations are on average about 61% smaller than when you were born.", "note": "an average of population trends, not a count of animals. habitat loss to farming is the largest driver on land; fishing at sea.", "source": "WWF Living Planet Index 2024; IPBES 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null }, { "birth_year": 2010, "left": "35", "right": "23", "text": "wild vertebrate populations are on average about 34% smaller than when you were born.", "note": "an average of population trends, not a count of animals. habitat loss to farming is the largest driver on land; fishing at sea.", "source": "WWF Living Planet Index 2024; IPBES 2019", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "WWF Living Planet Index 2024, 1970 = 1, interpolated.", "range": "index CI roughly ±10 points", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "an average of population trends, not a count of animals; the site says so on screen." }, { "id": "LGR-154", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "mammals, by weight", "latin": "everything with fur, warm blood and milk", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "of all mammal life on earth, by weight: 62% is livestock. 34% is us. 4% is wild.", "note": "chickens outweigh every wild bird on earth about three to one. this is not a model or a projection. it is a census.", "source": "Bar-On, Phillips & Milo 2018, PNAS", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "Bar-On, Phillips & Milo 2018 biomass census.", "range": "±10% on shares", "confidence": "estimate", "weakness": "none material." }, { "id": "LGR-155", "version": "0.1.0", "name": "wildfire", "latin": "the honest version", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "there is less fire on earth than twenty years ago. that is true. it is not the whole story.", "note": "fewer fires, and worse ones, in different places, for different reasons. this site will always show the region.", "source": "Andela et al. 2017, Science; Abatzoglou & Williams 2016, PNAS; Copernicus CAMS; INPE", "closer": null, "regions": [ [ "africa", "burned area down by roughly a quarter worldwide since the early 2000s, almost all of it savanna that became farmland and fenceline. fewer fires, more fields." ], [ "western north america", "forest area burned has more than doubled since the mid-1980s. warmer, drier, longer seasons." ], [ "boreal canada and siberia", "record carbon from fire in 2021 and 2023. the forest is burning hotter and further north." ], [ "the amazon and cerrado", "fires here are not weather. they are lit, to clear land for cattle and soy. the forest is here; the beef is elsewhere." ] ] } ], "method": "Andela et al. 2017 (global burned area trend); Abatzoglou & Williams 2016; Copernicus CAMS; INPE.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "count", "weakness": "regional statements are summarised; each wants its own series." }, { "version": "0.1.0", "name": "model to feed", "latin": "the roadmap", "kind": "still", "action": false, "badge": "model", "feedable": null, "closer": null, "good": false, "needs_birth_year": false, "no_ledger_columns": true, "unit": null, "examples": [ { "birth_year": null, "left": null, "right": null, "text": "every number here is a model until it is a feed. the flips, in order: fires (NASA FIRMS), trawlers at sea right now (Global Fishing Watch), satellites (Space-Track), daily slaughter (USDA, then others), air in ten thousand cities (OpenAQ), the sea (NOAA, daily), forest alerts (GLAD).", "note": "each channel wears a badge in the corner: model or feed. the site gets more true every month, and says so. anyone who finds an error in a number is credited, in public, with their name on the changelog.", "source": "the roadmap is public. the data is a public repository. every rate has an ID and a version.", "closer": null, "regions": null } ], "method": "the roadmap.", "range": "n/a", "confidence": "n/a", "weakness": "n/a" } ], "tables": { "land_slaughter_per_year": { "1961": 8000000000, "1970": 12000000000, "1980": 19000000000, "1990": 30000000000, "2000": 45000000000, "2010": 64000000000, "2020": 80000000000, "2026": 84000000000 }, "sst_anom": { "1950": -0.05, "1960": 0, "1970": 0, "1980": 0.1, "1990": 0.2, "2000": 0.3, "2010": 0.42, "2020": 0.58, "2024": 0.72, "2026": 0.72 }, "ozone_hole": { "1978": 0, "1979": 0.1, "1985": 14, "1990": 21, "1995": 22, "2000": 29.9, "2005": 26, "2010": 22, "2015": 26, "2019": 16.4, "2020": 24.8, "2023": 26, "2024": 22, "2026": 22 }, "humpbacks": { "1900": 120000, "1966": 5000, "1990": 20000, "2010": 60000, "2024": 84000, "2026": 84000 }, "aral_area": { "1960": 68000, "1970": 60000, "1980": 52000, "1990": 37000, "2000": 25000, "2010": 14000, "2020": 8000, "2026": 8000 }, "dead_zones": { "1910": 4, "1960": 49, "1970": 87, "1980": 162, "1990": 305, "2000": 405, "2010": 500, "2018": 700, "2026": 700 }, "amr_deaths": { "1990": 1000000, "2019": 1140000, "2021": 1140000, "2026": 1200000 }, "bison": { "1927": 54, "1950": 200, "1970": 1000, "1990": 3000, "2000": 2900, "2010": 4400, "2020": 8500, "2026": 9500 }, "beaver": { "1900": 1200, "1950": 20000, "1970": 100000, "1990": 400000, "2000": 600000, "2010": 1000000, "2020": 1500000, "2026": 1500000 }, "wolves_eu": { "1970": 8000, "1990": 12000, "2010": 14000, "2016": 17000, "2022": 21500, "2026": 23000 }, "eagle_pairs": { "1963": 417, "1980": 1200, "1990": 3000, "2000": 6471, "2007": 9789, "2019": 71400, "2026": 71400 }, "costa_rica_forest": { "1940": 75, "1960": 55, "1987": 21, "1997": 42, "2005": 51, "2013": 54, "2021": 57, "2026": 58 }, "sats_active": { "1957": 0, "1960": 5, "1970": 200, "1980": 350, "1990": 500, "2000": 700, "2010": 1000, "2015": 1400, "2020": 3400, "2023": 8000, "2026": 13000 }, "london_smoke": { "1850": 300, "1890": 500, "1900": 450, "1920": 350, "1940": 250, "1952": 300, "1960": 150, "1970": 60, "1980": 30, "1990": 25, "2000": 20, "2010": 15, "2020": 11, "2026": 10 }, "polio": { "1950": 600000, "1960": 500000, "1970": 450000, "1980": 400000, "1988": 350000, "1995": 7000, "2000": 2971, "2005": 1979, "2010": 1352, "2015": 74, "2018": 33, "2020": 140, "2023": 12, "2024": 74, "2026": 40 }, "measles_deaths": { "1950": 2600000, "1963": 2600000, "1980": 2600000, "1990": 1100000, "2000": 780000, "2010": 140000, "2016": 90000, "2019": 210000, "2021": 130000, "2023": 107000, "2026": 110000 }, "tb_deaths": { "1990": 1900000, "2000": 1700000, "2010": 1400000, "2019": 1200000, "2023": 1250000, "2026": 1250000 }, "land_per_capita": { "1961": 2.6, "1970": 3.2, "1980": 4.3, "1990": 5.7, "2000": 7.4, "2010": 9.2, "2020": 10.3, "2026": 10.2 }, "sea_per_capita": { "1961": 250, "1990": 300, "2010": 320, "2026": 310 }, "eggs_dairy_per_capita": { "1961": 1, "2026": 1.2 }, "meat_kg_per_capita": { "1961": 17, "1970": 20, "1980": 23, "1990": 25, "2000": 27, "2010": 30, "2020": 32, "2026": 32 }, "fish_kg_per_capita": { "1961": 5, "1980": 6, "2000": 8, "2020": 10, "2026": 10 }, "blue_whales": { "1900": 250000, "1930": 100000, "1966": 6000, "1970": 5000, "1990": 7000, "2010": 10000, "2020": 14000, "2026": 15000 }, "tigers": { "1900": 100000, "1970": 40000, "1990": 8000, "2010": 3200, "2016": 3890, "2022": 5574, "2026": 5700 }, "black_rhinos": { "1960": 100000, "1970": 65000, "1980": 15000, "1995": 2410, "2010": 4880, "2022": 6487, "2026": 6500 }, "african_elephants": { "1930": 5000000, "1979": 1300000, "1989": 600000, "2007": 500000, "2016": 415000, "2026": 415000 }, "giant_pandas": { "1980": 1100, "2004": 1596, "2014": 1864, "2026": 1900 }, "mountain_gorillas": { "1981": 254, "2003": 380, "2010": 480, "2018": 1063, "2026": 1100 }, "kakapo": { "1995": 51, "2009": 124, "2019": 213, "2024": 247, "2026": 247 }, "vaquita": { "1997": 567, "2008": 245, "2015": 60, "2018": 19, "2024": 8, "2026": 8 }, "us_shelter_killed": { "1970": 13500000, "1985": 10000000, "1997": 5000000, "2011": 2600000, "2019": 920000, "2023": 700000, "2026": 700000 }, "us_bison": { "1800": 30000000, "1870": 10000000, "1884": 325, "1900": 1000, "1930": 20000, "1970": 30000, "2000": 350000, "2020": 500000, "2026": 500000 }, "lpi": { "1970": 1, "1980": 0.77, "1990": 0.59, "2000": 0.45, "2010": 0.35, "2020": 0.27, "2026": 0.23 } }, "dials": { "LOTTERY_EXPONENT": 0.4, "SLOT_MS": 24000, "NON_ANIMAL_WEIGHT": 1.5, "HUMAN_WEIGHT": 2, "STILL_WEIGHT": 0.3, "ACTION_WEIGHT": 0.4, "WEIGHT_CAP": 18, "NO_REPEAT_SLOTS": 40, "RARE_EVERY_H": 25, "FLOOR_HOURS": 3, "seconds_per_year": 31557600 } }