← on nowLGR-081 · v0.1.0 · model · count (post-1988); estimate (pre-1988)

polio: the year you were born, and now

polio · children paralysed by wild poliovirus, a year

born 1950 600 000 → 40 cases a year when you were born there was no vaccine. iron lungs. now: a few dozen cases a year, in two countries.

method WHO/GPEI wild poliovirus paralytic cases by year; pre-1988 back-estimates.

born 1970 450 000 → 40 cases a year about 450 000 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.

it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.

born 1990 252 000 → 40 cases a year about 252 000 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.

it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.

born 2010 1 352 → 40 cases a year about 1 352 a year when you were born. a few dozen now.

it is the best ledger ever kept for a disease. every case of sudden paralysis in every country is investigated and typed. that is why the number can be trusted all the way down.

live. this is the channel itself. embed it anywhere:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?channel=polio" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · polio"></iframe>
or the whole broadcast, every channel, the same for everyone:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?embed=1" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · on now, everywhere"></iframe>

how this number is built

method
WHO/GPEI wild poliovirus paralytic cases by year; pre-1988 back-estimates.
range
pre-1988 ±50%
confidence
count (post-1988); estimate (pre-1988)
weakness
the pre-1988 numbers are estimates and labelled so.
dispute
dispute LGR-081 · corrections are credited
data
channels.json (sign-in) · full entry · CC BY 4.0
all channels · how it's built · on now, everywhere · sign out