← on nowLGR-048 · v0.1.0 · model · model extinctions: how much, per second and per year
extinctions · species gone for good
gone forever · modeled
500
a year
1.58e-5
a second
1
a day
recorded, since 1500
~900
no ledger. most species were never named, so most extinctions are never recorded. the two columns disagree by a factor of hundreds; that is the finding.
method modeled rate set mid-literature (~500 species/yr); documented count from the IUCN Red List (EX + EW).
- the modeled rate runs from about a hundred a year to tens of thousands, depending on the method. this counter sits in the middle. the range is the honest number.source: Pimm et al. 2014; Ceballos et al. 2015; IUCN Red List
- on land the leading cause is farming. at sea it is fishing. of threatened land vertebrates, most are threatened by agriculture.source: IPBES 2019; Tilman et al. 2017
- a million species are threatened with extinction, many within decades.source: IPBES 2019
live. this is the channel itself. embed it anywhere:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?channel=extinctions" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · extinctions"></iframe>
or the whole broadcast, every channel, the same for everyone:
<iframe src="https://thetoll.earth/?embed=1" width="100%" height="520" style="border:1px solid #D9DDDB" title="the toll · on now, everywhere"></iframe>
how this number is built
- method
- modeled rate set mid-literature (~500 species/yr); documented count from the IUCN Red List (EX + EW).
- range
- 100–30,000/yr depending on method; documented ~900 since 1500
- confidence
- model
- weakness
- the largest disagreement on the site, by design shown as two columns. the ticking number is a stand-in for a range that spans two orders of magnitude.
- dispute
- dispute LGR-048 · corrections are credited
- data
- channels.json (sign-in) · full entry · CC BY 4.0